Mound Musings: The Endgame Odyssey Continues – National League

Last week I promised to look at some shaky bullpens. These are National League, but they don't have a monopoly by any means. We'll look at the American League next week. There are plenty of bullpens in the National League with evolving roles, including decisions on who will get the call in the ninth inning.

Delving into unsettled bullpens has become one the most popular topics in the Musings because, quite frankly, it is one of the most challenging scoring categories in fantasy baseball, and a timely addition to your roster can propel you to new heights in your league standings. The trick is in identifying an upcoming change in roles.

Let's review some NL bullpens, many with question marks still remaining:

Braves – This one looked pretty easy to predict on Opening Day, but when regular closer, Raisel Iglesias went down with an injury there was a little scurrying in the pen. Lefty set-up guy A.J. Minter ended up stepping in, while Nick Anderson chipped in with effective innings. Iglesias is due back this week, and we should see him sliding back into the ninth-inning role fairly quickly. A hunch, I think a healthy Anderson could be a factor.

Brewers – To move on with our evaluations, we'll look at a team that appears relatively set. The Brewers traded Josh Hader, which opened the door for Devin Williams. I don't have Williams in the group of elite closers, but he's probably pretty close. With Matt Bush on the IL, probably until at least early June, Peter Strzelecki has stepped up and should see most of the eighth-inning work. He could see the odd save chance, too, but Williams will get the ninth as often as possible.

Cardinals – At a glance, this bullpen seems like it should be fairly settled, but I think there may be lingering questions. Ryan Helsley was touted as the ultimate endgamer, but that has seen its share of trepidation. I still think he's the guy but he's got to get in sync and hits his spots. Giovanny Gallegos has collected most of the saves not credited to Helsley so far, so he could be considered the primary caddie, and would get the call if Helsley fails to iron things out. I really thought Jordan Hicks would ultimately find his way into a ninth-inning role, but he has never found the command necessary, so at least for now, that idea is on hold.

Cubs – To begin the season, no one stood out as the obvious closer for the Cubbies. Today, no one stands out as the obvious closer for the Cubbies. There were several arms being considered, led by veterans Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger. Fulmer was generally ineffective, so Boxberger is getting a look. Neither is a long-term answer. Maybe Adbert Alzolay or Jeremiah Estrada will get a shot, but both have holes in their games. and I think with Boxberger the Cubs are doing all they can right now,

Diamondbacks – Here's an early surprise – not that there would be role shuffling in the bullpen, we expected that; but rather that Arizona is sitting near the top of the NL West standings. They began the season with Scott McGough closing, but he was inconsistent, and they recently gave Andrew Chafin a few chances. Chafin has done pretty well, but he's a set-up guy, so I think we might see McGough again.

Dodgers – It's actually a bit rare for a team considered a prime playoff contender to function without an established closer, but here we are. I'm fairly certain the Dodgers see Brusdar Graterol as their closer of the future, but they are bringing him along with caution, so he is currently sharing the ninth inning with Evan Phillips. They have others worthy of consideration like Daniel Hudson and J.P. Feyereisen, but  those guys are hurt.

Giants – On the surface this one appears rather decided. Camilo Doval has closer stuff, and has successfully finished quite a few games the past couple years, but he does have an Achilles heel issue. Doval suffers bouts of wildness at times, so the endgame can offer a lot of anxiety. Southpaw Taylor Rogers has closing experience and is the most likely candidate to fill in for Doval as needed.

Marlins – I really expected Dylan Floro to grab the gig and run with it this year after he did a respectable job as the team's closer for much of last season. Unfortunately, the Fish acquired A.J. Puk and he has stepped up as their primary closer. Floro is now one of the main set-up guys along with lefty Tanner Scott and a sleeper for saves, righty Matt Barnes who has the stuff but has struggled in the role before.

Mets – What do you do when you lose your elite closer for the season before the season even begins? Well, when Edwin Diaz blew out his knee, the search for a 2023 fill-in began in earnest. Not surprisingly, veteran set-up man David Robertson, who has filled in as a closer in the past, was the lukewarm choice. I actually prefer Adam Ottavino who has better stuff but less closing experience. Lefty Brooks Raley (on the IL) is another possibility, but there really isn't a true closer here.

Nationals – This one comes down to what's behind door No. 1, door No. 2, or door No. 3. Right now, last year's closer Kyle Finnegan is getting the most ninth-inning work, but he doesn't really have closer stuff. If Finnegan stumbles, one option is Hunter Harvey. He has the best stuff in the pen, but he is extremely fragile and the Nats carefully control his workload. That leaves the door just slightly ajar for one of my favorite bullpen sleepers, Carl Edwards.

Padres – Assuming good health and adequate rest, you can pretty much write this one down. Hader, other than a brief stretch last summer (we all have them) is one of the premier closers in the game. Nick Martinez is back in the pen where he excels. He is joined by Luis Garcia, and eventually lefty Drew Pomeranz. Going forward, I expect to see Hader every day with Martinez his primary caddie when he needs a day off.

Phillies – The Phillies pretty much annually attempt to rebuild their bullpen. The big addition was Craig Kimbrel who was presumably brought on to serve as their closer. However, that wasn't all. Gregory Soto brought a fairly extensive late-inning resume. They were joined by holdovers Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado in a new look bullpen. Kimbrel has struggled, but things will hopefully settle down, while Alvarado has been virtually untouchable. Going forward, assuming good health, I expect to see Kimbrel as often as they dare with Alvarado his primary caddie when he needs a reset.

Pirates – Before the year began, most people saw the Pirates as also-rans. Now a month in, they are the talk of baseball.  Closer David Bednar has been his usual reliable self, while Duane Underwood and Colin Holderman have done a very good job getting the game to him. Look for more help when Wil Crowe returns in late June.

Reds – The Reds bullpen has been a story of inconsistency and injury, but things may be sorting out. Alexis Diaz has shown he can handle the ninth, and guys like Lucas Sims, despite some inconsistency, can set him up as long as he stays out of the trainer's room. Early last season he opened some eyes with his electric stuff, but an elbow strain cost him a couple months, and he wasn't the same after. Together with Sims, what you'll get is a collection of so-so relievers including Ian Gibaut and Reiver Sanmartin. Other options include Buck Farmer or Tony Santillan.

Rockies – Daniel Bard generally handles the ninth inning for the Rockies these days. Bard was out of pro baseball from 2013 to 2020. He returned to the game and won a spot in the Colorado bullpen. That alone was pretty amazing, but he and his electric 98 mph fastball worked their way into the closer's gig. He's a power closer, but early this year an anxiety issue resurfaced and Pierce Johnson stepped up. If that happens in the future, look for Johnson to step in again, while Brad Hand and Justin Lawrence serve as competent bridge builders.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• He's been struggling, but the Padres' Blake Snell might be coming out of his funk. In his last outing against the Reds, he allowed just three runs over six innings. Okay, it wasn't dominating and it was against a relatively weak offense, but he didn't walk anybody. We'll see if he can maintain positive results.
• The Jays' Jose Berrios started 2023 with a couple horrible outings, then followed those up with three or four excellent starts. Of course, I started paying attention. Maybe he's ready to consistently pitch well? Then he coughs up five runs in a short outing against Boston. You just can't trust him.
• Johnny Cueto has always been someone I enjoy watching, so I was happy to hear he is getting close to returning to the Marlins rotation. He suffered a biceps injury in his first 2023 start, and has been rehabbing the past month. In deep leagues, I still think he can help a fantasy team in need of pitching.
• The Yankees' Domingo German was pitching masterfully with a 2-0 lead over Cleveland, but after just 90 pitches, with the bases empty and one out in the ninth he was pulled. The bullpen immediately melted down, buying a 3-2 loss. I'm sure analytics impacted that decision, but what happened to common sense?
• Here's a little homework. When asked what I see that predicts extreme success, I first look at quality of stuff coupled with pitch location and sequencing. Nobody does it better than Arizona's Zac Gallen. Very good stuff, up and down, in and out, and everything moves. Take a look when you have a chance.
• I take first MLB starts with a grain of salt, and I take pitching peripherals against the A's with a huge salt block. That said, I was very impressed with the performance of Seattle's Bryce Miller in his debut. Good stuff, nice repertoire, and he was very composed on the mound. I want to see more of him.

Next week we will visit the American League bullpens.