This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
In keeper and dynasty leagues there is a huge benefit in identifying and acquiring excellent pitching talent just before they arrive in the major leagues. Certainly, uncovering an impact pitcher for the upcoming season in the spring could be a major step in winning your league. That's what Mound Musings is all about.
I will say, this list is actually getting much more difficult to maintain. There are still plenty of young arms with high ceilings, but it seems like more and more of the blue-chippers are being called to the majors earlier, a fact that has been greatly accelerated with declining innings pitched by the majority of starters. The end result has been an unprecedented rush to the major leagues, and we are left trying to sift through all those kids in an attempt to add the real impact arms, while avoiding the pretenders.
I am considering pitchers who saw fairly regular innings in 2023 to be "graduates" even though many are still technically prospects. Let's get started:
Put (Keep) These Guys on Your Watch List …
Paul Skenes (PIT) – With Grayson Rodriguez and then Eury Perez graduating, there was a vacancy at the top of the list, but it didn't last long. The first pick in this year's draft, Skenes takes over the top spot on the kid's list, and he does it with authority. He pitched a lot of innings last spring, so the Pirates kept it light after he signed. He did show up in Rookie League ball, Single-A, and finished up with Double-A Altoona, and he never looked out of place. His fastball touches 103 mph, and he already has a plus slider and plus changeup. At LSU this year he struck out 200 in just 114 innings while walking 19, so what else can I say. Skenes is the real deal, a generational talent, and a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm who can contribute the first time he takes the mound in Pittsburgh, which could realistically be as early as April 2024.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) – Misiorowski is only 21-years-old, and he has already looked at home at the Double-A level. He gets the nod here as one of the fastest risers on my list as he continues to mature at a very quick pace. The Milwaukee organization typically develops quality young pitching when they get the talent, and this guy looks like a blue-chipper. His numbers at Single-A and High-A were good (2.64 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP), and his numbers suffered a bit at Double-A, but don't be fooled, as they were likely tarnished by him pitching with a tired arm that eventually sent him to the IL, ending his year in mid-August. He's got a power arm with a fastball that teases triple-digits, and his secondary stuff (slider and curve) is still a bit of a work in progress but shows promise. I'm guessing he starts in Triple-A next spring, but as rapidly as he learns he could see Milwaukee fairly early in 2024.
Ricky Tiedemann (TOR) – Regular readers know I am certainly not one to give up on exceptional raw talent because of a few setbacks. And, Tiedemann fits that bill. He has arguably the best raw stuff of anyone on the list not named Skenes. His arm is what team's dream of, and the Jays had him ticketed on the express before injuries set in. As a 19-year-old, he began 2022 at Low-A, moved to High-A Dunedin, then stopped off at Double-A New Hampshire, before missing some time. He spent 2023 between Single-A, Double-A and the injured list, logging just 42 innings because of a biceps injury. He fairly easily sits mid-90s with his fastball, but his calling card is an MLB-ready (and that could be quite an understatement) changeup. It's spectacular. He still needs to fine tune his command, and he needs to prove he can stay healthy, but he has dominating starter upside. If healthy he'll be in Toronto fairly soon.
Cade Cavalli (WAS) – A first-round draft pick in 2020, he has compiled 220 minor league innings and even made one appearance in Washington. Unfortunately, he has suffered significant shoulder problems, underwent Tommy John surgery and isn't expected back until mid-2024. His thing is strikeouts, and I think he has the raw stuff to continue that in the majors if he can overcome the health issues. He just has to consistently stay in the strike zone. He's a power pitcher with the makings of a four-pitch mix starting with a fastball and very nice curve, followed up with a slider and changeup that were coming before the injuries. Monitor him closely next spring to determine his timeline and assignment.
Kyle Harrison (SF) – Harrison jumps up on the list as he continues to get better with each passing start. Like many young southpaws, it's all about control for him. He already has a plus-plus fastball that might eventually touch triple digits, and good, but not great (yet), secondary pitches. If he's throwing everything for strikes, hitters face the challenge of deciding whether to swing the moment the pitch leaves his hand. Those decisions accounted for a lot of strikeouts and relatively few walks (for him). He threw strikes, but got too much plate, resulting in homeruns. All in all, it has been a pretty successful season, and with Harrison having just turned 22 in August he will likely continue to mature. Harrison is the definition of a young lefty power pitcher, and the question now is when will he lock in a release point and bring it all together. I look for him to take the next step.
Max Meyer (MIA) – You may be noticing something of a trend here. Unfortunately, we'll have to be a bit patient with Meyer, too, who underwent Tommy John surgery last year. If all continues to go well in his rehab, we could see him good to go next spring to begin the 2024 season. Miami drafted Meyer out of the University of Minnesota in the first round of the 2020 draft, and he sped through their system (and remember, they are typically conservative and usually opt not to rush young arms). He made his MLB debut in July 2022, getting roughed up a bit by the Phillies, before tossing just 10 pitches in his next outing. That's when his elbow gave out. Meyer advanced so quickly because he is the total package, or at least he has the potential to be. He relies on his mid 90s fastball and sharp slider, both of which he commands well, but he probably still needs a reliable third pitch. I'm confident that will come in this organization.
Daniel Espino (CLE) – Another huge arm with that most desirable of traits: the ability to miss bats. Espino is just 22, and his minor league record is sprinkled with encouraging performances. I have been really looking forward to significant progress, and he got off to great start with Double-A Akron in 2022, but knee issues interrupted his development after just four starts, and things went from bad to worse when he needed shoulder surgery in May of this year. He has a plus-plus fastball, and I love his curveball. He has a very good slider, and his changeup is coming. The question is, and has been, whether he can physically handle a starting pitcher's workload. He is wispy and not considered an ideal physical specimen, which combined with high velocity at a very young age earns you an injury risk label. The risk is obviously there, but I still see a lot of positives in his mechanics. To me, he is efficient, more than an over-thrower, and his lower body strength is an asset. The Indians are bringing him along slowly, and the hope is his body will continue to mature. If it does, he could potentially add more velocity.
Andrew Painter (PHI) – Let's add another to the list of walking wounded. To be honest in today's game, if you have any pitching upside at all, and your throwing arm is still more or less attached, you probably graduated. Painter has been a promising young pitcher since the Phillies took him out of high school in the 2021 draft. Let's see, high school kid, big arm, how long before the arm gives out? The Phillies were hoping he could see Philadelphia sometime this year, but instead he underwent Tommy John surgery, and he's out for most of, if not all, 2024. A tall, skinny kid, Painter is extremely rare for his age – he throws a four-pitch mix for strikes. In his brief time at Double-A Reading in 2022, he struck out 37 in 28 innings while walking just two. This spring he was dogged by UCL woes and ended up undergoing surgery in July. He's still just 20 years old, so once he returns with a brand-new elbow, he should be good to go for a while. He has legitimate ace stuff. You just have to be patient.
Jackson Jobe (DET) – It only seems fair that I dig around and find a healthy arm to add to our list. Enter Mr. Jobe. The third overall pick in the 2021 draft, he is just 21 years old and was just promoted to Double-A Erie earlier this month. He made his first start there memorable, tossing six shutout innings with six strikeouts and no walks. Some analysts have actually been disappointed in his minor league peripherals – mostly a lack of strikeouts – but I like his slider and changeup, and hope the strikeout rate increases if his low 90s four-seamer perks up. The Tigers have quietly collected young guys they hope will become the nucleus of their pitching staff. Understandably, they tend to bring them along slowly, so my guess is Jobe will start at Double-A in 2024. If everything comes together, he could make it to Detroit in the second half.
As you can imagine, there are quite a few other blue-chip prospects who didn't appear in the majors this season or pitched very few innings. Here are just a few other honorable mentions who received consideration (in no special order) for inclusion in the 2024 Parade: Cade Horton (CHC), Ryan Pepiot (LAD), Jairo Iriarte (SD), Kyle Hurt (LAD), Eric Pardinho (TOR), Cooper Hjerpe (STL) Mason Miller (OAK), Ben Joyce (LAA), Robby Snelling (SD), DL Hall BAL), Gavin Stone (LAD), and Shane Baz (TB)
That's a wrap. As always, remember, this year even more than ever before, the Parade is pretty much a living thing, constantly evolving and changing. I want to thank all of my regular readers and contributors for participating in the interactive comments and questions section! That is the best part of it for me. This marks the conclusion of my 13th season as a weekly columnist for RotoWire, and I'm already looking forward to pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training 2024.
Be well my friends!
