This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Not too surprisingly, this year, it seems like there have been even more (than usual) erratic pitching results. Some pitchers have enjoyed some success, which always leads to decisions on whether they should be added to your fantasy targets. Even good teams with the very best pitching are sometimes shaking their heads. Even with good beginnings, many arms won't post long-term value, as the hitters get in sync and into a hitting groove. However, some pitchers will actually dominate. They are angling on having stellar years, and so should you.
That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have seriously impressed me with both solid numbers and future potential at this early point in the season. This is a mix of young and old, kids and veterans, trying to convince me they are fantasy stars. Every year a handful of pitchers break through with a career year, and early returns suggest these players might be some of the more likely to do so.
You might consider aggressively pursuing these arms:
Garrett Crochet (White Sox) – I've liked just about everything about Crochet since the first time I saw him pitch. He eventually made it to the top of my kids list, and I was preparing for a big splash. Unfortunately, he missed 2022 and most of 2023 with injuries, slowing his development so we've had to be patient. He began to drop on many prospects lists as he struggled, but I have a long memory, and I
Not too surprisingly, this year, it seems like there have been even more (than usual) erratic pitching results. Some pitchers have enjoyed some success, which always leads to decisions on whether they should be added to your fantasy targets. Even good teams with the very best pitching are sometimes shaking their heads. Even with good beginnings, many arms won't post long-term value, as the hitters get in sync and into a hitting groove. However, some pitchers will actually dominate. They are angling on having stellar years, and so should you.
That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have seriously impressed me with both solid numbers and future potential at this early point in the season. This is a mix of young and old, kids and veterans, trying to convince me they are fantasy stars. Every year a handful of pitchers break through with a career year, and early returns suggest these players might be some of the more likely to do so.
You might consider aggressively pursuing these arms:
Garrett Crochet (White Sox) – I've liked just about everything about Crochet since the first time I saw him pitch. He eventually made it to the top of my kids list, and I was preparing for a big splash. Unfortunately, he missed 2022 and most of 2023 with injuries, slowing his development so we've had to be patient. He began to drop on many prospects lists as he struggled, but I have a long memory, and I was pretty confident he would get things back together. At his best, the southpaw has a full repertoire of above-average offerings he will throw in any count or situation. His command was somewhat suspect before the injuries, but it's improving. He works up and down in the zone, and everything moves. I can almost promise a few more growing pains, and being with the horrid White Sox is no help, but he's back and close to taking another step forward.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) – Yamamoto is one of those guys who occasionally pulls the wool over my eyes. When he first arrived, he looked okay, but I wondered about all the hoopla. The Dodgers gave him the big bucks. Then I watched him again, and he looked better. Rinse and repeat. A distinct pattern quickly developed. Everytime he stepped on the mound, he looked better. That's actually fairly rare. Pitchers usually give you a pretty good idea of what they have after only a handful of starts. I'm not sure I can adequately explain it, but pitchers from Japan usually need time. His command is improving, but, even more so, he is generating more movement on his pitches, and his mound demeanor, a direct offshoot of confidence, is off the charts. I hesitate to label his ceiling, because I'm not sure he won't just surpass it and keep going.
Luis Castillo (Mariners) – I have been a writer for years and have a broad vocabulary, but I have a hard time finding words adequate to describe La Piedra. He looked good in his spring innings, and has shown an amazing upside in his early season outings. He has a very solid ERA and WHIP and they are legitimate. His K:BB is very good at 81:22 over 78 innings, but the walks are trending down. Sure, a higher strikeout rate would be great, but I'll take this (he could easily surprise us with higher). He showed a lot of promise in Cincinnati and I was pretty sure the move to Seattle would be the icing on the cake. Just go down the checklist – excellent stuff, great movement, pinpoint command, and he pitches on a young and exciting team that just figures to get better. There just aren't any real weaknesses in my eyes.
Tarik Skubal (Tigers) – His early days, for example a 4.34 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 2021, didn't necessarily suggest impending stardom, but he's been even better every year since, and it looks like more good days are in his future. I liked what I initially saw in him, but he has developed beyond what I thought was his probable ceiling. He's undergone a bit of a transition recently – probably brought on by some 2022 health issues. He has cut way back on his slider usage, and replaced it with more four-seamers and change-ups. That's the secret. He has an incredibly good change-up, and he misses a lot of bats with it. So now you have a lefty who can touch triple digits with a moving fastball, can dazzle opponents with a spicy change-up, can mix in a nice slider and can throw them all for strikes. I'm pretty sure the Tigers and his fantasy owners are quite pleased.
Gavin Stone (Dodgers) – These next couple of guys are perhaps just a bit more speculative. I'm not quite ready to tag them with an "elite" endorsement, at least not yet, but they have done some things to warrant a lot of attention. Stone suffered through an abysmal 2023 split between Triple-A Oklahoma City and Los Angeles, but he was one of those guys who, no matter how bad the numbers got, kept tossing discreet little hints. And, you could try and take some comfort in the dynamic numbers he posted in 2022 (when he first turned my head). Stone is a change-up specialist, which means he has to command his fastball, consistently hitting his spots. This year he's doing that again. My only real concern is a significant decrease in him throwing strikeouts. I'm monitoring that.
Nick Lodolo (Reds) – Here's another one I have been touting for a long time. Lodolo is quickly making a name for himself, and that's not easy while pitching for the Reds in a hitter's haven. Additionally, he has suffered through a series of injuries, which makes it harder to get in sync. In eight 2024 starts he has logged five wins and notched a favorable 49 strikeouts in just 46 innings. Interestingly, his overall stats are possibly somewhat understated, as he carries a very low walk rate, and he typically induces quite a bit of soft contact, so he's capable of minimizing traffic on the bases. Lodolo features a nice, moving fastball, but I love that curveball. Like most kids, the occasional meltdown is possible, but I really like where he's going.
Clarke Schmidt (Yankees) – This list was compiled just before it was announced Schmidt was going on the injured list and is expected to miss a month (or perhaps a bit more) with a lat strain. Lats heal, and he'll be back. I don't think the Yankees could have dreamed about the production they have gotten from their Cole replacement. All he has done is go 5-3 with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP with 67 punchouts in 60 innings. Those are top-of-the-rotation numbers from someone who wasn't guaranteed a rotation spot when the season began. He belongs on this list. He features a basic four-pitch mix, but his off-speed stuff has shown a bit more movement, and he is spotting his fastball better than he ever has. It's little things like this that make the future look bright.
Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:
- Maybe the most obvious question about the above list is, "Where is the Cubs' Shota Imanaga?" I didn't forget him, I'm just hesitant to include him as someone I expect to dominate as this season progresses. I think he'll be good, I just have this nagging feeling that he won't stay in the elite tier he is in now.
- Every time I gush over someone like Castillo, Yankees fans immediately ask, "What about Gerrit Cole?" Okay. Fair enough. I love Cole, but I think he may already be at his career ceiling. He's a couple years older than Castillo, and he perhaps relies just a bit more on pure power. But I'll take him any day.
- The Pirates' kids Jared Jones and Paul Skenes are getting most of the ink, but veteran Mitch Keller (7-3, 3.42 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) has reeled off five straight wins (just five runs in those five starts). I've seen him pitch like this many times at Triple-A Indianapolis, so maybe he's ready to bring his "A" game to Pittsburgh.
- A couple weeks into the season, and the Angels' Reid Detmers might well have been on the above list. After four starts he was 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. Now he's preparing to pitch for Triple-A Salt Lake. Detmers has loads of potential, but he's lost right now and needs to pull it all back together.
- We've been (rather painfully) tracking the Giants' Blake Snell pretty much all season, and if it weren't for bad luck, as the saying goes, he'd have no luck at all. He was late to sign in the spring, then it was an abductor injury and now it's a groin strain. He desperately needs some steady, healthy, mound work.
- Cole's return could mean more to the Yankees than you might expect. They have benefited from the work of Luis Gil, but Gil has never thrown 100 innings in a season (his highest has been 96 innings in 2019). That certainly sounds like some workload restrictions, and a shutdown could be down the road.
Endgame Odyssey:
Toronto's Jordan Romano has clearly not been right of late. He was first listed as "unavailable" for a couple games before going on the IL with inflammation in his elbow. An MRI showed no structural damage so hopefully it's short term. In his absence, the Jays have deployed a committee of sorts with Yimi Garcia a modest choice for saves. The Brewers' Trevor Megill needed a couple days off after taking a comebacker to his elbow, but he looked fine when he returned (he struck out all three batters he faced), so expect to see him back in the closer's role soon. The Rays are definitely a better team when the oft-injured Pete Fairbanks is available to close. Earlier this week, they led Miami going to the ninth 9-5. Phil Maton loaded the bases without recording an out (making it a save opportunity), and Fairbanks came on to shut it down, striking out a pair. With Edwin Diaz on the IL after struggling, the Mets could employ a committee in the ninth inning. Adam Ottavino has some closing experience, but Reed Garrett, or maybe lefty Jake Diekman, could also potentially see some save chances. Trouble is, nobody is consistently doing the job.
