NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.

We have two goals for this article: 

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

Bids in general are best guesstimates. With so much uncertainty at least initially, those values may be even greater estimates than usual. The FAAB chart below lets users easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The chart, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This is a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. An "A" grade is reserved for a high-impact prospect stepping into an everyday role.

If you have questions on players, I'm happy to provide my thoughts in the comments.

HAPPY MOTHERS DAY TO ALL, INCLUDING MY WIFE, SISTER AND SISTERS-IN-LAW!

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Carlos CarrascoNYMSPC159 (same injury spec return bid)
Zach DaviesAZSPD016
Kyle HendricksCHCSPD147 (same early spec injury return bid)
Ben LivelyCINSPE016
Luis OrtizPITSPB2711 (up in keeper leagues)
Eury PerezMIASPA/B51116
David PetersonNYMSPD/ENo05
Colin ReaMILSPENoNo4
Ranger SuarezPHI

We have two goals for this article: 

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

Bids in general are best guesstimates. With so much uncertainty at least initially, those values may be even greater estimates than usual. The FAAB chart below lets users easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The chart, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This is a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. An "A" grade is reserved for a high-impact prospect stepping into an everyday role.

If you have questions on players, I'm happy to provide my thoughts in the comments.

HAPPY MOTHERS DAY TO ALL, INCLUDING MY WIFE, SISTER AND SISTERS-IN-LAW!

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Carlos CarrascoNYMSPC159 (same injury spec return bid)
Zach DaviesAZSPD016
Kyle HendricksCHCSPD147 (same early spec injury return bid)
Ben LivelyCINSPE016
Luis OrtizPITSPB2711 (up in keeper leagues)
Eury PerezMIASPA/B51116
David PetersonNYMSPD/ENo05
Colin ReaMILSPENoNo4
Ranger SuarezPHISPD2711 (same injury spec return bid)
Alex WoodSFSPD147 (same injury spec return bid)
Caleb FergusonLARPD147
Codi HeuerCHCRPC/D015 (same early spec injury return bid)
Mark LeiterCHCRPC/D2711
Drew SmithNYMRPC/D147
Gregory SotoPHIRPC2711
Travis d'ArnaudATLCC511Rostered
Michael PerezNYMCENoNo3
Christian Encarnacion-StrandCIN1BB2711 (early spec call up bid)
Orlando ArciaATL2BD39Rostered
Miles MastrobuoniCHC2BENoNo4
Joey WendleMIA3BD159
Casey SchmittSFSSC51116
Dominic FletcherAZOFD2711 (upped bid from last week)
Bryce JohnsonSFOFENoNo4
Christopher MorelCHCOFC71422
Josh PalaciosPITOFENoNo4
Jorge SolerMIAOFC/D918Rostered
Lane ThomasWASOFD39Rostered

STARTING PITCHER

Carlos Carrasco, Mets: Carrasco has been on the injured list since Apr. 16 due to pain caused by a small bone chip in his right elbow and received an injection three days later. He threw a multi-inning bullpen session on Apr. 30, paving the way for him to make a rehab start May 9 at Double-A Binghamton. Carrasco gave up one run over three innings while throwing 46 pitches. He was slated to make another rehab start Sunday for Double-A Binghamton or Triple-A Syracuse before likely returning from the 15-day IL next week. Carrasco struggled in each of his three outings, the last of which was the best of the three before he was sidelined and had elbow issues late in the spring. If the injection resolves the problem, he represents a nice buy-low candidate. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $9 (same injury spec return bid)

Zach Davies, Diamondbacks: Davies, sidelined since Apr. 8 with a strained oblique, tossed 34 pitches over two innings in his first extended spring training start Tuesday in Arizona. He'll try to work four innings or around 55 pitches in his second outing Sunday or Monday. The 30-year-old righty is almost fully recovered from his injury and should be an option for the Diamondbacks' rotation later this month. Once healthy, he could replace Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt or Tommy Henry at the back end of the Arizona rotation. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $6 

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs: Hendricks, profiled the last three weeks, gets another mention as he will make his fourth rehab start Sunday with Triple-A Iowa. After a pair of brutal outings, he headed back to Chicago last week to work through some mechanical issues. Whatever adjustments Hendricks made seemed to work as he delivered five scoreless frames in his third rehab start Tuesday versus Triple-A Toledo. He had suffered a right shoulder capsular tear last August, which sidelined him to begin this season and could rejoin the team's rotation this week if he has another solid outing and comes out of it healthy. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7 (same injury spec return bid) 

Ben Lively, Reds: Cincinnati designated Luis Cessa for assignment this week and replaced him with Lively, who was promoted from Triple-A Louisville. The right-hander produced an impressive 2.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 16 strikeouts over 27 innings in five appearances - including four starts - in the minors. Lively operated as a bulk-reliever Thursday by going three innings while picking up his first win since 2017, but could slot into the Cincinnati's starting rotation. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $6

Luis Ortiz, Pirates: Ortiz, who mixes a high-90s four-seam fastball with a 90MPH slider and developing changeup to retire hitters, was called up from Triple-A Indianapolis to start Tuesday against the Rockies. He flashed promise in the majors last season and in seven starts this year with Indianapolis. Over 32.1 innings with the affiliate, Ortiz logged a 2.23 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 29:11 K:BB. Control has been a minor problem in his career, but the ability to miss bats and induce groundballs add to his staying power. Ortiz allowed five runs (two earned) on seven hits and a walk over five innings against Colorado and it isn't clear whether he'll stick around. The 24-year-old right-hander should make at least one more start while Vince Velasquez (elbow) is on the IL. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 (up in keeper leagues)

Eury Perez, Marlins: Perez was promoted from Double-A Pensacola to make his major league debut Friday where he gave up two runs on four hits and two walks while striking out seven across 4.2 innings. At only 20 and in his second season at Pensacola, Perez had gone 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in six starts. And over his last four outings, he had taken it to another level by only giving up three runs with five walks and 30 strikeouts across 22 innings for a 1.23 ERA. Perez offers a deep, four-pitch arsenal headlined by a mid-to-upper-90s fastball that gets on hitters even quicker thanks to his extension. His command and composure are perhaps the most impressive aspects of his profile. Perez became the youngest player to start a game in Marlins' history, surpassing Jose Fernandez. He may need time to adapt, as the most pitches he's thrown in a game is 90 and has only completed six innings four times during his pro career while his single-season peak was 78 in 2021. Between Double-A Pensacola and Friday's outing, Perez is at 35.2 frames in 2023, which could limit his usage and impacts my projected bid. But the upside potential is huge. 12-team Mixed: $5, 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: $16

David Peterson, Mets: New York called up Peterson to start in place of Max Scherzer, who was scratched with neck spasms. Prior to his Tuesday start, Peterson had struggled to a 7.34 ERA and 1.57 WHIP with 36 strikeouts over 30.2 innings in six starts this season. Despite allowing four earned runs on seven hits and two walks over just 3.1 innings Tuesday, he'll make a spot start for the Mets on Monday versus the Nationals to give Justin Verlander an extra day of rest. Scherzer was to start Sunday, and if healthy look for Peterson to be sent back down. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $5 

Colin Rea, Brewers: Rea, moved to the bullpen Wednesday, is sliding back into the Milwaukee rotation and stepping in for Eric Lauer. Adrian Houser, activated last weekend, had replaced Rea as the No. 5 starter. But Rea's struggles in his relief appearance and Lauer's issues from his last three starts have resulted in another flip-flop. Rea hadn't pitched much more effectively in his time with the Brewers in 2023 with a 4.94 ERA and 22:11 K:BB in 27.1 innings over six appearances, but he's receiving another chance to start. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $4 

Ranger Suarez, Phillies: Suarez, sidelined with forearm inflammation, made the third and final start of his rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Sunday. He threw 48 pitches in five innings after tossing 27 and then 54 during pitches his first two rehab starts. Suarez was to have upped his pitch count to the 70-to-75 range, so he may be limited in terms of how long he goes his first few starts back. Activated on Saturday. Suarez allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out four over four innings and 72 pitches in a no-decision versus the Rockies. He used to throw a sinker, four-seamer and changeup with the occasional slider and added a cutter and curve last season while slotting back in as the Phils' No. 4 starter. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 (same injury return bid)

Alex Wood, Giants: Wood was activated off the injured list Friday, throwing an inning in relief and scheduled to start Monday. He suffered a strained left hamstring in the third inning of his third start of the season Apr. 18 against the Marlins. He was to miss "at least" several weeks, but recovered a little quicker than expected and was back on the mound in less than two weeks. Wood posted a 1.80 ERA and 1.40 WHIP and 11:6 K:BB across 10 innings and tossed 46 pitches over 3.2 innings in his lone rehab appearance last Sunday with Triple-A Sacramento. He'll need a few starts to get stretched out to a normal workload as he resumes his spot at the back end of the SF rotation. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7 (same injury return bid) 

RELIEF PITCHER

Caleb Ferguson, Dodgers: Ferguson has taken on the role as the Dodgers' main lefty out of the bullpen. He's picked up two wins and a save over his last three appearances while stretching his scoreless streak to 11.1 innings on Saturday. The southpaw has produced a 1.17 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 17:3 K:BB across 15.1 innings while adding five holds and a 3-0 record. This marks Ferguson's third straight solid campaign and he clearly has value - even if not closing. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7 

Codi Heuer, Cubs: Heuer, profiled the last two weeks, is repeated here as he made his third rehab appearance with Triple-A Iowa on Friday. He came over the Cubs in the Craig Kimbrel deal back in 2021, underwent Tommy John surgery last March and missed all of 2022. Heuer will need an extended rehab stint and is eligible to be activated off the 60-day IL on May 29. He could end up as Chicago's closer by the end of the season, thanks to his strikeout upside and stuff. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5 (same early spec injury return bid) 

Mark Leiter, Cubs: Leiter notched his first save of the season on May 5. He's earned his high-leverage spot with a 1.06 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 25:6 K:BB through 17 innings, as increased usage of his nasty splitter has paid big dividends so far. Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger are still in the mix with Codi Heuer a possible option down the road, but Leiter will be a factor at the back end of the bullpen. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11

Drew Smith, Mets: Smith notched the save Friday when David Robertson ran out of gas in the ninth inning after throwing 40 pitches and notching five outs. View this save as an aberration, as Smith is behind Robertson and Adam Ottavino in the bullpen pecking order. That said, Smith offers value and earned his high-leverage spot with a 1.88 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 20:7 K:BB over 14.1 innings while collecting two wins and seven holds in 16 appearances. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7 

Gregory Soto, Phillies - Jose Alvarado (elbow) went on the injured list Wednesday. As a result, Soto is expected to split closing duties with Craig Kimbrel, which was the case Friday and Saturday as each notched a save. The lefty-throwing Alvarado had been Philly's top reliever and primary closing option this season with five saves, but is now sidelined by elbow inflammation. Kimbrel has four saves, but has struggled at times with a 6.60 ERA from 16 outings, which could allow Soto - who tallied 30 saves for Detroit in 2022 and allowed four of the eight runs he surrendered this year in one bad outing - to take on a larger share of the closer role. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 

CATCHER 

Travis d'Arnaud, Braves: D'Arnaud had the best full season of his career last year, but saw the Braves bring in Sean Murphy while replacing William Contreras. Despite the addition of Murphy, TdA was still seeing plenty of at-bats before sustaining the fourth concussion in his professional career when he was involved in a collision at the plate with Rougned Odor on Apr. 8. He only played in three rehab games, but is fully healthy. Marcell Ozuna finally showed signs of life of late, but d'Arnaud is receiving plenty of time in the DH spot while catching a couple times per week. 12-team Mixed: $5, 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: Rostered 

Michael Perez, Mets: Perez was promoted this week with Tomas Nido hittingthe IL with dry eye. He'll operate as Francisco Alvarez's backup and remain with the team until either Nido returns or Gary Sanchez – signed to a minor-league deal this past week – is promoted. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3

FIRST BASE 

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Reds: Encarnacion-Strand missed the first three weeks of the minor-league season recovering from the back injury he played through in spring training. His production since being activated has been elite having already blasted nine homers in 94 plate appearance. CES is getting time at first, third and DH, with the last one probably being his role once promoted - and that should come sometime this summer. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 (early spec call up bid) 

SECOND BASE

Orlando Arcia, Braves: Arcia returned to the Atlanta lineup Sunday just shy of four weeks after suffering a microfracture in his left wrist. Prior to the injury, he had slashed .333/.400/.511 with two home runs, 10 runs and seven RBI over 50 plate appearances. The Braves tried several players at shortstop while Arcia was sidelined, but none were able to provide consistent production. His numbers are being bolstered by an unsustainable BABIP, but still remains in the lineup almost daily. 12-team Mixed: $3, 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team NL: Rostered

Miles Mastrobuoni, Cubs: Mastrobuoni was recalled Friday to add a bit of versatility to the Cubs' bench while Nico Hoerner recovers from a left hamstring strain. He's raked in the minors, but only slashed .194/.216/.222 through 37 career plate appearances at the MLB level. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $4 

THIRD BASE

Joey Wendle, Marlins: Wendle, sidelined since Apr. 2 with a right intercostal strain, was activated off the injured list last Sunday after completing an eight-game rehab assignment with Triple-A Jacksonville. He struggled last season - his first year in Miami - but was a candidate to rebound with a better lineup around him before being sidelined. Now active, Wendle will see most of his playing time at shortstop, largely against right-handed pitching. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $9 

SHORTSTOP

Casey Schmitt, Giants: Schmitt earned his first call-up Tuesday after slashing .313/.352/.410 with a homer, 22 RBI, 19 runs scored and three steals through 32 contests with Triple-A Sacramento. Not originally thought of as a power hitter, he hit 19 home runs the last 110 games he played last season. And Schmitt went deep in his debut and added another one Thursday. The natural third baseman is known for his defense and he filled in for the injured Brandon Crawford at shortstop Tuesday. Schmitt can also play some at second, though Thairo Estrada has that position locked down. When Crawford returns, look for Schmitt to play all over the diamond. 12-team Mixed: $5; 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team-NL: $16 

OUTFIELD 

Dominic Fletcher, Diamondbacks: Fletcher, promoted two Sundays ago with Corbin Carroll nursing a knee bruise, has been on-fire since slashing .462/.488/.744 with two homers, 13 RBI and five runs scored from his first 12 big-league appearances. In 93 at-bats with Triple-A Reno, the younger brother of Angels infielder David Fletcher went .323 with three homers and a steal while registering a .976 OPS. Fletcher's hot start has kept him in the lineup after originally being viewed as another lefty bat in an outfield dominated by lefty bats. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team-NL: $11 (upped bid from last week) 

Bryce Johnson, Giants: Johnson was recalled Thursday to make his second stint with the Giants this season and replaced Austin Slater, who has landed back on the injured list with another left hamstring strain. He went 3-for-20 (.150) in a 10-game stint with San Fran last month and will once again fill a bench role. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team-NL: $4 

Christopher Morel, Cubs: Morel forced the Cubs' hand to promote him by posting a blistering .330/.425/.730 slash line with 11 homers and four stolen bases over 29 games with Triple-A Iowa. His contact issues have continued with a 30.6 percent strikeout rate at Iowa, but he offers the potential for some power and speed as seen by the 16 home runs and 10 steals he notched as a rookie in 2022 while being eligible at multiple positions. Morel has gotten off to a red-hot start since being recalled while receiving regular playing time and bouncing around the diamond in a super-utility role. 12-team Mixed: $7; 15-team Mixed: $14; 12-team-NL: $22

Josh Palacios, Pirates: Palacios gets the call to the Pirates' major-league roster after racing out to a .368/.433/.598 batting line with four homers and four swipes through 21 games (97 plate appearances) this season between Double-A and Triple-A. The 27-year-old can play all three outfield spots, but he's only compiled a .207/.267/.232 career line in 91 plate appearances in the majors. Palacios is slated to work as a fifth outfielder. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team-NL: $4 

Jorge Soler, Marlins: Soler extended his hit streak to seven on Saturday by going for 2-for-4. He's now 10-for-26 with three home runs, seven runs driven in and seven runs scored during that stretch. Soler will still end up as a drag on your batting average, but looks to have regained the power stroke he displayed when he hit 48 homers in 2019 with KC and 27 between the Royals and Braves two years later. If you rostered him in your leagues, enjoy the better-than-expected production. 12-team Mixed: $9; 15-team Mixed: $18; 12-team-NL: Rostered

Lane Thomas, Nationals: Thomas saw his eight-game hitting streak end Friday, but he's still 12-for-37 with three home runs and seven runs driven in over that period. He's clearly resurrected his career since arriving from St. Louis. Thomas has displaced Alex Call as the Nationals' preferred table setter against both right and left-handed pitching. He won't post elite numbers, but is a solid option - especially in deeper leagues. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team-NL: Rostered 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jan Levine
Levine covers baseball and hockey for RotoWire. He is responsible for the weekly NL FAAB column for baseball and the Barometer for hockey. In addition to his column writing, he is master of the NHL cheat sheets. In his spare time, he roots for the Mets and Rangers.
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