This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Sunday, June 2
The Phillies and Yankees Just Win
The Philadelphia Phillies (41-18) and New York Yankees (41-19) continue to win, but the Phillies hold just a half-game lead for the best record in MLB over the Yankees. The Phillies won 20 games in May for second most behind the Yankees, who won 21 games.
The market is pricing these two juggernauts at increasingly more expensive levels. The average betting line for the Phillies' games played in April was a –154 favorite and has since risen to a –182 favorite. The Yankees average price in April was a –160 favorite and –165 favorite in May. If the market pricing averages –175 for either of these teams they will have to go 17-10 or win about 64% of their games just to break even in June. So, be highly selective and cautious when looking to bet on the Phillies and the Yankees in the weeks ahead.
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The Best Bets for St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies will go for their third consecutive home sweep when they take on the Cardinals at sold-out Citizens Bank Park with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be televised by ESPN. The market currently has the Phillies priced as modest -140-favorites and with a posted total of 9.0 runs. In early betting action, there have been far more Over bets than Under bets. As a result, the Under 9.0 runs wager is priced with +110 vig. This betting line could move to 9.5 runs later this afternoon.
Through the first two games, the Phillies overwhelmed the Cardinals, outscoring them, 10-3, and outhitting them, 14-8. The Cardinals have not had the lead in either game and they will have to find ways to score runs if they want to avoid the sweep.
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Who Are the Starters?
The Phillies will send to the Taijuan Walker, who is 3-1 in six starts with a lofty 5.51 ERA and a 1.592 WHIP, including 25 strikeouts and 12 walks spanning 32.2 innings of work. He is coming off a tough start allowing five ER and nine hits in an 8-4 Phillies loss.
Walker has a heavy fastball (sinker) that averages only 91 MPH, but has significant late downward action. When he is at his best, he generates more ground-ball outs than fly-ball outs, and will have to keep the ball down in the zone and work both sides of the plate to earn the win tonight. His troubles are on pitches up in the zone and are reflected in a 14.3 percent barrel rate. His average exit velocity of 91 MPH and 48 percent hard-hit percentage are big concerns, too.
The Cardinals will send to the mound 13-year veteran right-hander Lance Lynn, who is 2-3 in 11 starts with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.343 WHIP, including 53 strikeouts and 23 walks spanning 57.1 innings of work. He has pitched far better than his record indicates, since he has received terrible run support and the defense has allowed eight unearned runs on errors. He has posted a 2.65 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP over his last three starts but went 1-2 in those starts.
The Phillies have six starters in the lineup who have average exit velocities of at least 90 MPH. Edmundo Sosa has replaced Trea Turner (hamstring) at shortstop and seems to hit everything extremely hard. Lead-off batter Kyle Schwarber averages a team-high 94 MPH exit velocity and a team-high walk percentage on 17 percent of his at-bats. Third baseman Alec Bohm ranks fourth in MLB with 49 RBI and has become an RBI machine for the Phillies. So, Lynn will face a gauntlet of excellent hitters from top to bottom.
The MLB Betting Algorithm for Sunday
The following MLB betting algorithm supports a bet on the Phillies and has produced a highly profitable 197-114 for 63 percent winning bets that have averaged a –148 wager resulting in a 14 percent ROI and a $54,280 profit for the Dime Bettor. The requirements are:
- Bet on home teams that average 5.0 or more RPG in the current season.
- The home team has allowed 2.0 or fewer runs in each of their last two games.
- The NL guest has a starter with a solid ERA of 3.70 or lower in the current season.
If our home team is favored and it is also the last game of the series, it has produced a 47-15 record for 76 percent winning bets averaging a –169 wager that has earned a 35 percent ROI and a $26,180 profit for the Dime Bettor.
My Best Bet for Sunday is on the Phillies priced as a –140 home favorite.
The Pizza Money Player Props
- Bet the Houston Astros Chas McCormick to get a hit priced at –130.
- Bet the Marlins Trevor Rogers to record 5.0 or more strikeouts priced at +120.
- Bet the Angels Griffin Canning to allow 2.0 or fewer earned runs priced at –105.
