Saturday's Best MLB Bet

Saturday's Best MLB Bet

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Detroit Tigers take on the Baltimore Orioles in the second game of this three game series in Baltimore. This is the second time these teams have matched up in the last two weeks, and they have split the first four games 2-2.  The Tigers won their series at home and now the Orioles won the opening game of this series after dominating them 7-1 in game one.  Both of these teams are making a run at a playoff spot right now, although the Orioles spot is a bit more safe.  The Orioles are 86-68 this season and they currently hold the top Wild Card spot by four games over the Royals.  They have been struggling overall lately but they have now won two games in a row.  They are 44-35 at home this season but just 34-35 against teams with records over .500.  The Detroit Tigers have been on an absolute tear for a couple months now and they have put themselves in playoff contention out of nowhere.  They are 80-74 on the season and they have won seven of their last 10 games.  They are 41-38 on the road this season and they are 41-47 against teams above .500.  The Orioles are 11-15 in the last 30 days and 6-7 at home while the Tigers are 19-8 in the last 30 days and 11-4 on the road.  Both these teams have playoff aspirations right now and it is very possible we see these teams match up against each other in the playoffs.

Cade Povich is getting the start for the Orioles and he is making his 15th career start in his rookie year.  He has not been very good overall going 1-9 with a 5.74 ERA in his 14 starts this season.  He actually faced the Tigers in his last outing and allowed two runs in five innings pitched, but he has had some really tough outings this season.  A lot of times you see these younger pitchers struggle facing a lineup for the second start in a row because they aren't as good at making adjustments yet.  Reese Olson is starting for the Tigers and he is making just his second start since returning from the IL.  He had been out since July, so he understandably was shaking off some rust in his first start back.  He allowed four runs in 2.1 innings pitched to the Royals on the road.  However, he won't go very deep into this game and that is a good thing.  The Tigers have had the best bullpen in the league the last 30 days, so it's not a bad thing if Olson has to come out early.  Either he is pitching well and he gets deep into the game, or he struggles early and gets pulled, but then the Tigers bullpen can take over.  Olson has not faced the Orioles this season which gives the advantage to the pitcher there.

The Tigers have definitely struggled more against lefties lately because they have key bats like Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, and Parker Meadows neutralized.  They are ranked just 18th in the league in wOBA against lefties the last 30 days. The Orioles have been struggling against both handedness lately, although we saw them break out yesterday.  They are ranked 24th in the league in wOBA against righties the last 30 days.  As I mentioned, the Tigers have a massive bullpen advantage as the best bullpen in the league in the last 30 days, and the Orioles bullpen is ranked 15th in the same time.  The Tigers lost the first game of this series but they have the second best record in the last 30 days at 19-8 and they are 11-4 on the road.  The Orioles are 11-15 in the last 30 days and just 6-7 at home. I like the Tigers to bounce back and force a rubber game.

BEST BET

Tigers ML +105 vs. Orioles (DK)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Bollman
I am a data scientist and baseball analyst who grew up in Bethesda, Maryland before I moved to South Florida about five years ago. I went to Tulane University in New Orleans for both undergraduate and graduate school, and worked for the Tulane Baseball team as a Quantitative Analyst while working towards my Masters degree in Biostatistics and Data Science. I worked for the Toronto Blue Jays in their Player Development and High Performance departments out of graduate school and I am the founder and owner of my company Baseball with Bollman.
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