This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With Feast Week far from over, Black Friday brings us another fun-filled day of college hoops action. Here are my predictions for a pair of championship games tipping off on Friday evening.
Louisville 
vs. Oklahoma 
The Cardinals enter the Battle 4 Atlantis Final with a 5-1 record, collecting wins over Indiana and West Virginia during its trip to the Bahamas. Before this tournament, Louisville had played just one opponent worth noting, a home game against Tennessee. It didn't go well, as the Vols routed the Cardinals by a final score of 77-55. This outcome suggests Louisville still has a lot of work to do before it gets back to the Big Dance, although its recent performances are encouraging.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, beat up on teams from the bottom of the D-1 standings before its trip to Atlantis, and it now has a 6-0 record after defeating Providence and Arizona over the previous two days. Normally, a five-point win over the Wildcats gives a team a reason to pound its chest, however, Arizona has now lost three of its last four games, so time will tell how much this win means. Either way, Arizona ranks No. 25 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, so it's still a good win, even if Arizona has dropped multiple games to potential tournament teams.
In stacking these two teams against each other, Louisville appears to have a slight edge, outranking Oklahoma in overall efficiency, No. 37 compared to No. 43. The Cardinals also have a better defensive rating, ranking 18th in efficiency compared to 45th for the Sooners. That said, Louisville has a massive defensive weakness that Oklahoma can exploit. The Cardinals have struggled to secure defensive boards, ranking 277th in rebounding percentage, an area that can come back to haunt them because Oklahoma ranks 96th in offensive rebounding percentage. In addition to its strength on the glass, the Sooners are also effective from the perimeter. They are making more than 36 percent of their three-pointers and attempting them at the 82nd-highest rate, giving us a team that can reliably score from anywhere on the court.
When playing in the other direction, Louisville's offense isn't terrible, ranking 56th in efficiency, although it's sub-par with its ball-handling, ranking 192nd in offensive turnover percentage. This could be an issue on Friday because Oklahoma ranks 25th in defensive turnover percentage and third in steal percentage. Louisville is also having trouble with long-range shooting. Despite making under 30 percent of their shots from behind the arc, the Cardinals are attempting three-pointers at the 12th-highest rate among all D-1 teams, not the best combo for long-term success.
Overall, while these two teams are close to even in the composite rankings, Oklahoma's various strengths make it well-equipped to win the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. I'm taking the points in this matchup.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under. This is the third game in three days for both teams, so tired legs could play a factor in the second half of Friday's matchup. Fatigue issues aside, both teams also feature a defense that slows down opposing teams. Louisville ranks 278th in defensive average possession length, while Oklahoma ranks 306th in the same category. I should note that both of these teams prefer pushing the pace offensively, although, naturally, that can only happen with some cooperation from the opposing defense. Given the circumstances of the tournament final and the defensive intensity of both teams, I'm betting we'll have a low-scoring game on our hands.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oklahoma +3 and Under 150
Purdue 
vs. Mississippi
The Boilermakers advanced to the Rady Children's Invitational Championship with a 10-point victory over N.C. State, giving them two quality wins on the year. Purdue previously hosted Alabama in a nine-point victory before getting crushed at Marquette, 76-58. Outside of this loss, the Boilermakers have appeared unbeatable, although the Golden Eagles demonstrated that is far from reality.
The Rebels, on the other hand, remain perfect at 6-0 following a thrilling overtime win over BYU. This was the first real test the Rebels had seen all season, so beating a team that's ranked 36th in overall efficiency can go a long way in improving a resume.
When the Boilermakers have the ball on Friday, their potent offensive attack faces an interesting challenge. Mississippi ranks 68th in defensive efficiency, far from elite, however, it does one thing particularly well: cause turnovers. The Rebels rank seventh among all D-1 teams in defensive turnover percentage and 12th in steal percentage, a relentless combination similar to Marquette, which ranks fifth in defensive turnover percentage and first in steal percentage. Purdue could barely get its shots off when it played Marquette, so it will need to play sharper against a team with similar defensive strengths if it wants to avoid an upset.
When the Rebels have the ball, in contrast, they shouldn't have to worry about it getting stolen. The Boilermakers rank 305th in defensive steal percentage, and Ole Miss ranks first in offensive turnover percentage, so the latter should likely win the turnover battle if these trends hold up. Purdue ranks 34th in defensive efficiency, a solid standing, although not many areas stand out as strengths. The Boilermakers are allowing opponents to make over 52 percent of two-point field goals, ranked 228th, and they rank 305th in defensive block percentage, giving us a team that appears vulnerable in the paint. Ole Miss isn't the best-suited team to take advantage of this weakness, although it is the second-most experienced group in the nation, so perhaps their wisdom will help break it down.
Mississippi has covered its last three games by nine-plus points, and based on this matchup, I like its odds of covering once again. It won't be easy, but if the Rebels can maintain their defensive intensity, they have a fair shot at pulling the upset. I'm taking the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Mississippi +4.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Oklahoma +3
- Louisville vs. Oklahoma - Under 150
- Mississippi +4.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
