This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Players Era Festival takes center stage on Saturday's college hoops slate as the event comes to a close at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Coming off a 3-0 sweep with Friday's picks, here are my predictions for the fifth and third-place games in this high-profile tournament.
Rutgers 
vs. Texas A&M 
The Scarlet Knights made a lot of noise during the offseason as they recruited Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, two of the top three high school prospects in the nation according to 247sports. The freshmen are playing well, though the new talent hasn't translated into instant on-court success. Not even a week ago, Rutgers traveled to Kennesaw State and lost 79-77. The Owls are ranked 164th in overall efficiency, so this loss was somewhat concerning. From there, the Scarlet Knights traveled to Las Vegas for the first round of the Players Era Festival and beat Notre Dame in overtime 85-84, but the Fighting Irish lost their top player Markus Burton three minutes in. Rutgers lost the following matchup to Alabama 95-90, so they still have a lot of work to do if they want to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. The Scarlet Knights have failed to cover the spread in five of seven games this season, per Action Network.
The Aggies, meanwhile, lost their first game of the tournament to Oregon 80-70. I picked Texas A&M, but in my defense they led by 10 points with under 10 minutes left and still played well overall. The team rebounded next time out against Creighton by a 77-73 count. A couple weeks before arriving in Vegas, the Aggies beat Ohio State 78-64 to give them two quality wins.
When the Scarlet Knights have the ball on Saturday, they face a tough defense without many weaknesses. Texas A&M ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, noticeably higher than Rutgers' 68th offensive efficiency. The Aggies sit well above average in effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive turnover percentage, and defensive rebounding while appearing fundamentally sound across-the-board.
When the Aggies have possession, they'll be going up against a team that hasn't played up to its usual defensive standard. Under head coach Steve Pikiell, Rutgers has established an elite defensive reputation by finishing top-six in efficiency among all D-1 teams in each of the past two seasons. The dropoff this year is extremely noticeable as the current group of players sits 87th in defensive efficiency. The defense has one glaring issue, and it will likely be its undoing on Saturday: protecting the defensive glass. The Scarlet Knights rank 272nd in defensive rebounding percentage, an ideal opponent for Texas A&M because they have the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. I should also note that while sometimes fluky things happen early in the season, this isn't one of them as the Aggies also led in that category last season and rank ninth in roster continuity. That means we can confidently expect this strength to carry through the campaign.
Overall, the Aggies boast several advantages in this matchup. They are better at scoring, rebounding, and playing defense. Texas A&M's biggest flaw is that sometimes it struggles with field-goal percentage, making its ability to dominate the offensive glass a crucial part of its winning formula. Luckily for the Aggies, Rutgers hasn't been great at securing defensive boards. Considering this fact and Texas A&M's superior D, I'm laying the points with the Aggies.
I'm also taking the under. The Aggies have consistently played at a slow pace under head coach Buzz Williams, recording a tempo ranked 200th or slower in all six of his seasons there. Rutgers display a similar defensive trend. Despite not playing as well on that end of the court, the Scarlet Knights are still forcing opponents to use up most of the shot clock at 356th in defensive average possession length. This is nothing new for Rutgers as they ranked 331st, 351st, and 355th in the same category during the past three seasons. Presuming they doesn't roll over on defense, I like our odds of a low-scoring matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M -4.5 and Under 147.5
Houston 
vs. San Diego State 
The Cougars enter Saturday with a 4-2 record, though their two losses came against two of the country's top teams in Auburn and Alabama. The latter beat Houston in overtime during the opening round of the Players Era Festival 85-80, so it was no surprise to see the Cougars put a stranglehold on Notre Dame next time out by taking it 65-54. Houston bounced back like an elite team typically does, and now has a chance to earn another quality victory.
The Aztecs reset their roster in the offseason, and yet you would never know it by looking at their stats. Despite ranking 313th in minutes continuity, San Diego State once again boasts an elite defense without much to write about at the other end. Under head coach Brian Dutcher (and building off what Steve Fisher established), the Aztecs have one of the best defensive programs in the nation, ranking near the top at 11th, fourth, and second in defensive efficiency the last three years while currently at 11th. During the same period, San Diego State's offensive attack has been its weakness having been outside the top-60 in efficiency over each of the last three seasons. And this year's squad is no exception at 103rd.
Comparing these two teams, it's hard to imagine many points on the scoreboard. Houston offers a great offense, and yet San Diego State boasts a stingy defense to effectively make this side of the court a draw. The Cougars are also a bit reliant on long-range shooting, ranking eighth in three-point and 252nd in two-point field goal percentages. When going in the other direction, San Diego State has experienced problems scoring against average defensive teams, and now faces one of the best. The Aztecs don't do much well offensively that can help them as they sit 346th in offensive rebounding percentage and 356th in free-throw attempt rate, making it unlikely they get many second-chance opportunities or trips to the charity stripe.
Each club also has an extensive track record of working at a leisurely pace. San Diego State has consistently ranked among the slower teams in adjusted tempo, finishing each season 262nd or much lower in each of the past five years. The same holds for Houston at no higher than 300th or from each of the last five seasons.
While I'm leaning towards laying points with Houston, I ultimately prefer our odds with the under. Each team should have a difficult time offensively, and we're likely to see fewer possessions considering each team's clear preference is for a slower-paced game. I'm on the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 129
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Texas A&M -4.5
- Rutgers vs. Texas A&M - Under 147.5
- Houston vs. San Diego State - Under 129
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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