This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We only have a few college hoops games on Thursday's slate, but at least one is worth your attention. Here are my predictions for a couple of matchups involving Big 12 teams on Thursday evening.
Iowa State 
at Iowa 
The Cyclones have won seven of their first eight games, a nice start punctuated with quality victories over Dayton, Colorado, and Marquette. Iowa State also had Auburn on the ropes at the Maui Invitational, holding a 16-point lead at halftime before losing on a last-second shot, 83-81. The Tigers are currently sitting at the top of KenPom's overall efficiency chart, so this performance, even though they lost, demonstrated the Cyclones' high ceiling.
The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, have won seven of their first nine games, with their best wins coming against Washington State and Northwestern. Iowa had a couple of extra opportunities to pad their resume, but they lost by eight points to Utah State and then most recently lost by two points at Michigan. For what it's worth, the Wolverines were up eight points with under three minutes remaining, so it took a special last-minute comeback to make the margin close.
As most college hoops fans know by now, every year Iowa inevitably has a great offensive attack, but a weak defense. This year is no exception, as Iowa ranks 31st in offensive efficiency and 79th on defense. The latter is the area that will likely sway the outcome of Thursday's game because it's the weakest component in this matchup. The Cyclones rank near the top of the nation in many important categories, making them well-equipped to take advantage. Iowa State ranks seventh in offensive efficiency, sixth in turnover percentage, and 36th in free-throw attempt rate. The turnover number is important because Iowa's best defensive trait is its ability to cause turnovers, but Iowa State seldom gives the ball up, making it less likely Iowa gets many stops. Additionally, Iowa's defense is particularly weak on the front court. The Hawkeyes rank 263rd in defensive rebounding percentage and 326th in two-point field goal percentage allowed, two categories where the Cyclones excel offensively. Iowa State ranks 136th in offensive rebounding percentage and is making 60 percent of shots inside the arc, so it should see many put-back opportunities on Thursday.
At the other end of the court, Iowa's offense has a major challenge on its hands. The Hawkeyes aren't quite as sharp offensively as in past seasons, ranking 31st in efficiency, and they're poor in three areas that don't bode well. Iowa ranks 273rd in offensive rebounding percentage and 313th in free-throw attempt rate, making it unlikely it gets many opportunities for second-chance points. The Hawkeyes are also making 66 percent from the charity stripe, 310th among all D-1 teams, giving them another potential issue that could bite them on Thursday. These issues can trip any team up, and they're made much worse when facing a defense like Iowa State's. The Cyclones rank eighth in defensive efficiency, eighth in turnover percentage, 43rd in rebounding, and 70th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. This is an elite defensive team any way you look at it.
Given Iowa's defensive liability and Iowa State's strong offense, I'm taking the Cyclones to cover in this matchup.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under. The number is incredibly high, understandably so, but all it takes is one short scoring draught and suddenly the over becomes unlikely. Like most in-state rivalry games, the intensity level for this game will be off the charts. Both teams are excellent at causing turnovers, so it won't be surprising if the first few minutes are sloppy for both sides. That said, Iowa State hosted the game last year and won handily, 90-65, so ultimately, I'm betting that Iowa State will pull away in the second half as its defense clamps down.
College Basketball Best Bet: Iowa State -6.5 and Under 159.5
New Mexico State 
at Texas 
The Aggies are showing slight improvement in their second year under head coach Jason Hooten, ranking 193rd in overall efficiency, nearly 100 spots higher than where they finished the end of last season. The biggest jump is on defense, where New Mexico State ranks 155th in efficiency. This is only slightly above average for a D-1 team, although last year it ranked 241st, so it's already come a long way. The Aggies only have three total wins against D-1 opponents, but they're easily coming off their biggest victory, going on the road and beating in-state rival UNM. The Lobos already have a dominating win against UCLA this year, so this was truly a quality victory. At the same time, it's hard to match the same intensity and emotions that naturally spring up from a rivalry game. The Aggies will need to do this if they want to have any shot of pulling off a massive upset on Thursday.
The Longhorns, in contrast, have seven total wins, all against D-1 opponents, and only two losses. Their best win came at N.C. State and their two losses came against Ohio State and Connecticut, so Texas has some work to do before it can be confident it will hear its name called on Selection Sunday.
Texas is at its best this year when playing defense. The Longhorns rank 22nd in defensive efficiency and rank well above average in most key categories. They're also holding opponents to 41 percent inside the arc, the fourth-best mark in the nation. New Mexico State has struggled to score points as it is, making under 45 percent of two-point attempts, so it's hard to imagine the Aggies putting the ball through the hoop on Thursday.
Defensively, on the other hand, New Mexico State gives itself a chance of keeping the game close. The Aggies don't cause many turnovers but are good at forcing difficult shots. New Mexico State is holding opponents to under 45 percent on two-point attempts and ranks 50th in effective field goal percentage allowed, clearly making a successful effort to affect shots. The Longhorns are decent at scoring, ranking 60th in offensive efficiency, although the one area where it is weak is on the offensive glass. This might not be a major issue against a team like New Mexico State, but it still means the Longhorns are less likely to get additional scoring opportunities if their first shot doesn't fall through the net.
One other note, both teams prefer playing at a slower pace with New Mexico State ranking 235th in adjusted tempo and the home team ranking 241st in the same category.
Given the strengths and weaknesses of each team and their preference for a slower game, I like our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. I'm on the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 139.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Iowa State -6.5
- Iowa State at Iowa - Under 159.5
- New Mexico State at Texas - Under 139.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
