This article is part of our CFL Picks series.
The CFL is back to a four-game slate in Week 16, and there are a pair of Saturday matchups where upsets could be in the offing. We'll dive into a case for each one while also highlighting one player for which conditions may be ripe for a breakout performance.
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Montreal Alouettes at 
Ottawa Redblacks
Saturday, 4:00 p.m ET
If there was one contest on the three-game Week 15 CFL slate that didn't look primed for a surprise outcome, it was the Alouettes-Stampeders clash. But as the wise football proverb goes – "that's why they play the games."
Montreal ended up clawing to a 19-19 overtime draw, but the defending Grey Cup champs certainly underperformed. They're now dealing with a higher caliber of opponent and are once again on the road.
The Redblacks have their share of flaws, but Ottawa is 8-4-1, including a stellar 6-0-1 at TD Place Stadium. The Alouettes have dropped two straight games and are having trouble maximizing their offensive talent. Montreal has averaged just 21 points per contest over the last three games, making the Als a much less potent offensive squad than when they walloped the Redblacks by a 47-21 score in Week 3.
Ottawa is a different team on that side of the ball, for the better. The Redblacks now have two capable quarterbacks in Jeremiah Masoli and Dru Brown. Additionally, veteran receiver Dominique Rhymes has discovered his form from earlier in his career, recording a 20-267-1 line on 25 targets in the last pair of contests.
When paired with Justin Hardy, who just surpassed the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the second straight season, the duo form an explosive 1-2 punch that could capitalize on an Als defence that's surrendered the second-highest completion percentage (70.5) in the CFL.
Then, the return of Jaelon Acklin in Week 15, when he posted a solid 6-72 line on 10 targets, gives whoever is under center a third very reliable target. It's also worth noting Acklin has history with Masoli from their days together with the Tiger-Cats, particularly relevant if the latter draws the start.
The Als struggle to run the ball effectively, which could help Ottawa focus its efforts on an Alouettes passing game that hasn't quite been hitting on all cylinders of late. While Montreal is favored, it's by a narrow margin, and the Redblacks have both pressured quarterbacks (27 sacks) and pilfered their passes (13 INTs) with regularity.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at 
Edmonton Elks
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Both of these teams come in off Week 15 byes. That already sets up some intriguing conditions, and an Elks team that's playing better than it has in years under interim head coach Jarious Jackson makes for a very viable home underdog.
It remains to be seen if Jackson will stick with veteran McLeod Bethel-Thompson as his starter or reinsert the more dynamic Tre Ford. Ford should be fully recovered from the ribs injury that's cost him all but a handful of plays since Week 10, but Bethel-Thompson has played well in his stead and threw for 486 yards and three touchdowns two games ago versus the Stampeders.
The Bombers are now 7-6, yet Winnipeg has gotten there with five consecutive victories. The last three have come by very narrow margins, with Winnipeg prevailing by a combined 10 points in that span. Zach Collaros has mostly rediscovered his form and Brady Oliveira is still one of the best dual-threat running backs in the league, even though he's gained just 85 combined rush yards in the last two games.
However, no team arguably boasts a more explosive backfield than the Elks, which has Kevin Brown, Javon Leake and Justin Rankin heading up their positional depth chart at running back. Each player has the ability to score from anywhere on the field, and all three can be capable pass catchers as well. The Bombers make for very good targets, as they've allowed 99.3 rush yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry.
Either Bethel-Thompson or Ford will have access to a deep group of pass catchers that includes accomplished veterans Eugene Lewis, Hergy Mayala and Kurleigh Gittens, as well as the speedy Dillon Mitchell and Tevin Jones. The Bombers have been very tough against the pass, but they also field the league's least productive pass rush (19 sacks).
On the other side, while Edmonton's pass defense has sprung leaks (309.5 passing yards per game allowed), the Elks have also picked off a CFL-high 20 passes and have a league-best +20 turnover ratio. In turn, Collaros has thrown 13 interceptions in 13 games, including five in the last four games.
Finally, consider the Elks have a +43 point differential that's the second best in the CFL behind only the Alouettes, underscoring they're a better team than their 5-8 record implies.
Week 16 Player To Pop
Bo Levi Mitchell, Tiger-Cats: Hamilton pays a visit to the Argonauts in Week 16, and Mitchell checks into the matchup having thrown for 294 or more yards in three of the last four games. His most productive performance during that stretch came against Toronto in Week 13, when he threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 11.6 yards per attempt.
The Argos continue to be a team to target with quarterbacks, as they shut down the run at a near league-best rate (75.3 rush yards per game allowed) but are surrendering 290.4 passing yards per game and a 70.4 percent completion rate. Toronto has also conceded a co-CFL-high 23 completions of 30+ yards, brightening Mitchell's outlook even further in a game that carries the highest projected total of the week.
