This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Betting Odds Picks and Predictions for Sunday Night Football, Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers
A Bengals team fighting to remain a viable postseason contender gets a key receiver back into the fold. They will make the multi-time-zone trip to Los Angeles and face off against a resurgent Chargers team that sports an impressive 6-3 record in its first season under Jim Harbaugh.
Cincinnati's defense will need to prove it's up to the task against a Chargers' offense that seems to have hit its stride through the air, while Los Angeles' more talented unit will need to slow down one of the more prolific air attacks in the league.
Let's dive into latest odds plus bets and predictions for the prime time AFC clash.
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Bengals +108 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Chargers -122 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: Bengals +2 (BetRivers Sportsbook)/ Chargers -1.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 48.0 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Over 47.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The spread for this matchup has remained fairly stable, with the public ultimately showing about the same faith in the Chargers that the oddsmakers did when first setting the line. Los Angeles was a 2.5-point favorite before Week 10 games played out. The Bengals dropped a 35-34 heartbreaker to the Ravens while the Chargers exceed 25 points for the third straight game, this time against the Titans. Bettors did push the line down all the way to Chargers -1 at the beginning of the week, but it's moved back up to 1.5 and remained stable during the latter part of the week.
The total has actually moved on a steady upward trajectory, opening at 45 points before Week 10 play but then progressively shooting all the way to 47.5 by midweek. Following a brief dip back to 47, the number was as high as 48 points at some sportsbooks as of Friday night as the Bengals announced a key member of their offense, Tee Higgins, will return to action.
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers Betting Picks
The Bengals remain held back by a sieve-like defense that has already surrendered at least 35 points on four occasions this season, including twice in the last three games. While the Chargers would have likely been ill-suited to take advantage of this vulnerability earlier in the season. Yet, Justin Herbert has unsurprisingly gotten more comfortable in offensive coordinator Greg Roman's system as the season has unfolded, and he's accordingly been given more free reign through the air.
Herbert averaged 286.8 passing yards per game in Weeks 6-9 while posting a 5:0 TD:INT. The 2020 first-round pick has thrown just one pick all season, and he's demonstrated a solid command of the offense while spreading the ball around to a diverse group of pass catchers headed by Ladd McConkey (37 receptions) and tight end Will Dissly (33 receptions). The group also includes downfield threats Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston. The matchup against a Bengals defense that's surrendered 17 passing touchdowns overall and a 72.1 percent completion rate in the last three games certainly sets up as a favorable one.
Harbaugh still prefers to lean into a ground-based offense whenever possible, and the backfield duo of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards can make that a prudent strategy. Edwards just returned from an IR stint in Week 10 and looked good while rushing for 55 yards on 10 carries. In a testament to how much faith there is in the veteran back near the goal line, Edwards saw four red-zone carries right out of the gate, including two inside the 10-yard line. The Bengals allow 127.3 rushing yards per game and have surrendered nine rushing TDs to running backs, leaving Los Angeles' ground attack in position to succeed.
While Cincy's passing attack represents a significant challenge for any team, especially with Higgins returning, the Chargers surrender just 182.3 passing yards per home game, as well as a tiny 59.5 percent completion rate in the last three contests. Quarterbacks have just a 9:9 TD:INT against L.A., and the Bolts do a good job limiting big plays through the air by yielding the sixth-lowest yards per completion (9.3). Finally, the Chargers are tied for the third-most sacks recorded (31), further evidence of their ability to disrupt opposing passing attacks.
While it won't be easy by any stretch, I see the better defense making the difference here. A straight moneyline bet is my main wager, but a same-game parlay consisting of a cover and an Edwards TD at a fantastic price is a nice longer-shot wager to go with.
Best Bets
- Chargers moneyline (-120 on Caesars Sportsbook)
- SGP: Chargers -1.5 and Gus Edwards Anytime TD scorer (+383 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
Chargers 26, Bengals 23
The Chargers play fundamentally sound on offense and have a star-laden front seven that can cause offenses plenty of trouble. Los Angeles has had the advantage of a relatively soft schedule, but have shown an uptick in offensive production in recent weeks with Herbert finding his groove within Roman's scheme. Given Cincy's defensive struggles, I think Los Angeles finds enough balance to play some ball control and keep Joe Burrow and co. off the field enough to escape with a close win against the most talented passing attack it will have seen all season.
