Best Ball Strategy: Updated Underdog Playoff Rankings

The end of the regular season doesn't mean the end of Best Ball Season, at least not at Underdog Fantasy, who recently unveiled their Playoff Best Ball products for the 2023 NFL season. There are leagues available for two-, three-, four- and six-person drafts, but the biggest draws will likely be the Underdog playoff best ball tournaments – the $5 Mitten, the $3 Little Mitten, the $250 Big Mitten, and the $25 big-field Gauntlet. 

The game is mostly the same as Underdog's regular season best ball products, but for playoff best ball you would be drafting 10-player teams in a six-team league -- a five-man bench with a starting 1QB/1RB/1WR-TE/1FLEX. Advancing in the tournaments requires a balancing act of both (1) stacking offenses from teams that go deep in the playoffs and (2) posting high enough point totals in the Wildcard and Divisional rounds. In other words, while you want to have a stack from at least one of the eventual Super Bowl teams, your team won't advance from the first week if you go too heavy on teams with first-round byes. You'll need numbers in both the Wildcard Round and the Super Bowl, as well as the two weeks in between. Hedging your bets by building from a variety of rosters might theoretically raise your floor for any of the four weeks, but even if so it's likely that roster will lack the necessary firepower to place especially high in a given week, especially the later ones. 

To advance from the first round you need to finish in the top two of the six-team league you draft in, at which point your team advances to a new league against nine other teams that advanced from the Wildcard round. In the third round you'll need to place first to advance to the Super Bowl round. You'll want numbers in the wildcard round, ideally from a stack on a team that advances to at least the divisional round, and you'll likely want another stack on a team that does not project to play against the team of your other, initially advancing stack. That's to say, for example, that if an Eagles stack propels you through the first round, you might not want many of your remaining six or seven spots to go to the Cowboys. Hedging is tempting, but ultimately we're talking a high-risk contest, and drafting to reduce risk is basically impossible beyond the Wildcard round. To advance in this contest requires stacks of offenses that advance in the real playoffs.

As far as roster build goes, there are a wide range of permissible theories, but generally you probably want two quarterbacks (unless you're specifically building a roster on a bet that a Wildcard Round QB will advance to the Super Bowl), 2-4 running backs, 4-7 wide receivers/tight ends. Notice that the WR and TE positions are combined – this probably slightly decreases the utility of tight end relative to their regular-season ADP.

The remainder of this article will look at the current playoff seeding situation and look at the Underdog ADP to map out the current market. There will also be positional player rankings with explanations, as well as brief overall rankings following that. Note: these rankings are very time-sensitive and could change in a hurry depending on how the next weeks of the regular season shake out.

CURRENT SEEDING

AFC

1. Baltimore (13-4)
2. Buffalo (11-6)
3. Kansas City (11-6)
4. Houston (10-7)
5. Cleveland (11-6)
6. Miami (11-6)
7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

NFC

1. San Francisco (12-5)
2. Dallas (12-5)
3. Detroit (12-5)
4. Tampa Bay (9-8)
5. Philadelphia (11-6)
6. Rams (10-7)
7. Green Bay (9-8)

PLAYER RANKINGS

QUARTERBACK

1. Lamar Jackson, BAL (3.2 ADP)

   Jackson and Josh Allen are both reasonable picks for QB1, and whether you prefer one over the other might depend on your team build. Jackson won't accumulate Wildcard Round points with the bye, but in theory this bye boosts Jackson's odds of giving you point in the Super Bowl round, which isn't as easy to project for Allen, Jalen Hurts, etc.
    

2. Brock Purdy, SF (7.7 ADP)

   The ADP ranks Allen a bit ahead of Purdy, but I personally am concerned about Buffalo's ability to advance, and their Wildcard Round matchup with Pittsburgh might be challenging. Purdy is the heir to the NFC Super Bowl Favorite distinction, giving him the NFC parallel of Jackson's theoretical appeal.
    

3. Josh Allen, BUF (7.0 ADP)

   Allen's fantasy upside stands out especially among the Wildcard Round-eligible options, at least in light of Philadelphia's collapse. The Steelers could be a bit dangerous of a first team, but playing in Buffalo definitely helps. If you project the Bills as a Super Bowl team then it's easy to rank Allen first among QBs.
    

4. Dak Prescott, DAL (18.6 ADP)

   It's totally reasonable to worry about Dallas choking in the playoffs, including in the Wildcard Round against Green Bay, but if the 49ers slip then it could be Dallas who represents the NFC in the Super Bowl.
    

5. Jalen Hurts, PHI (22.0 ADP)

   How things change. Hurts was the consensus QB1 for playoff purposes a couple weeks ago, but the Eagles' implosion since then has understandably raised concerns of a first-round exit. I personally have concerns about Hurts and the Eagles, but no more than I do about the Chiefs or Dolphins.

    

6. Patrick Mahomes, KC (15.4 ADP)

   The Chiefs should be able to take care of Miami at home, but their offense has looked busted all year and it's because of the personnel, which can't change at this point. Mahomes is incredible but he's doing so much lifting on his own this year and it has clearly been an issue.
    

7. Matthew Stafford, LAR (49.3 ADP)

   I'm being a little aggressive here but if the Rams can beat the Lions then Stafford gives you at least two weeks where he should be one of the highest-scoring quarterbacks. For the Wildcard Round especially he seems like a nice pick -- Detroit can't cover those receivers.
    

8. Joe Flacco, CLE (47.6 ADP)

   I absolutely do feel crazy for ranking Flacco this high, and it could look silly in a hurry if the Texans get the Wildcard Round win over Cleveland. C.J. Stroud is the better quarterback without question, but the Browns' overall roster is tougher and certainly more seasoned. If the Browns win this game then Flacco has an outside shot of seeing the Super Bowl in an offense that throws 40-plus times per game.
    

9. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (35.2 ADP)

   Tagovailoa and the Dolphins could prove kingmakers on this slate if they can beat the Chiefs, but Arrowhead is a difficult place to travel to and it's still not clear how healthy Tagovailoa's supporting cast might be.
    

10. Jared Goff, DET (44.3 ADP)

    Goff and the Lions have been somewhat exposed recently, and there's no doubt about the limitations between Goff and the Detroit defense. The Detroit offensive line remains elite, though, and Goff still has a lot of help despite his ability to waste it at times anyway.
     

11. C.J. Stroud, HOU (51.7 ADP)

    Stroud is obviously a much better player than Goff or Flacco, but the Texans have a tough task to advance past the Browns. If they do then Stroud could become dangerous on the slate.

12. Jordan Love, GB (58.2 ADP)

    The future looks bright for Love, just probably not the immediate future with the Packers traveling to Dallas in the first round.

RUNNING BACK

1. Christian McCaffrey, SF (1.3 ADP)
   Yep. You'll notice that 1.1 there -- there's no debate about who the top overall pick is at the moment.
2. Tony Pollard, DAL (18.9 ADP)
   Pollard was overrated by many going into this year but he remains a good player and the top runner in an offense that is dominating right now.
3. Isiah Pacheco, KC (20.0 ADP)
   The Kansas City passing game is busted, leaving the Chiefs more dependent on Pacheco than anyone could have anticipated before the year.
    
4. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (21.8 ADP)
   The Lions have some things to figure out, but their run game isn't one of those things. Gibbs is a good running back and one who could post big numbers in up to three weeks of the playoffs. The Lions aren't getting past the NFC Championship Game, if they even make it that far, but Gibbs could be useful for two weeks.
5. Kyren Williams, LAR (21.0 ADP)
   The Lions matchup is a tough one, but Williams could be very productive beyond that if the Rams advance.
6. De'Von Achane, MIA (30.9 ADP)
7. Raheem Mostert, MIA (24.8 ADP)
   No idea how to call the Miami RB duo, especially with Mostert's knee issue, but either player is capable of nuking a slate with one of their big games, and Kansas City doesn't deserve much benefit of the doubt. It's lottery-ticket thinking perhaps, but there are some less-likely scenarios where either Achane or Mostert provide multiple 30-point playoff games.
8. James Cook, BUF (17.9 ADP)
   Cook's ADP is behind only McCaffrey among RBs, but I don't really see it. The Bills look far from a powerhouse team, and I think his current ADP supposes that the Bills are some juggernaut just hitting its stride, and I don't think they're that at all.
9. Jerome Ford, CLE (40.4 ADP)
10. D'Andre Swift, PHI (34.2 ADP)
11. David Montgomery, DET (37.4 ADP)
12. Gus Edwards, BAL (27.1 ADP)
13. Justice Hill, BAL (46.8 ADP)
14. Elijah Mitchell, SF
15. Jordan Mason, SF
16. Rachaad White, TB
17. Aaron Jones, GB
18. Najee Harris, PIT
19. Devin Singletary, HOU
20. Jaylen Warren, PIT
21. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
22. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI
23. Rico Dowdle, DAL

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

1. CeeDee Lamb, DAL (2.1 ADP)
   The Cowboys aren't feared as much as the 49ers or even the Eagles generally, but Lamb is playing at such a high level right now that most drafters still feel compelled to take him second overall. If Dallas were to make the NFC Championship Game then a lot of Lamb rosters might be heading into that round.
2. Deebo Samuel, SF (4.8 ADP)
3. Brandon Aiyuk, SF (7.3 ADP)
   I personally have no strong feeling about how to take first, but Samuel and Aiyuk are expected to play in the Super Bowl.
4. Tyreek Hill, MIA (7.1 ADP)
   It would be totally reasonable to rank Hill higher than this -- even as WR1 -- but I'm concerned about Miami's ability to compete.
5. George Kittle, SF (11.8 ADP)
   Mostly chasing Super Bowl points here.
6. Zay Flowers, BAL (12.2 ADP)
   See Kittle.
7. A.J. Brown, PHI (17.5 ADP)
   It's totally reasonable to be off the Eagles at this point, but if they advance past Tampa it would likely require at least one big game from Brown (pending his knee injury, anyway).
8. Travis Kelce, KC (15.1 ADP)
9. Rashee Rice, KC (19.1 ADP)
   Kelce has been so disappointing and Rice has been so good that the rookie might be more valuable by now. Crazy.
10. Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (9.9 ADP)
    St. Brown is great, I'm just a little worried about the Rams winning.
11. Cooper Kupp, LAR (33.7 ADP)
12. Puka Nacua, LAR (27.3 ADP)
    ...And since I'm concerned for the Lions, I'm intrigued for the Rams receivers.
13. Stefon Diggs, BUF (12.4 ADP)
    Diggs' struggles weren't conclusively ended with one decent game against Miami's busted defense, but if the Bills advance he could be a slate-breaker.
14. Amari Cooper, CLE (25.6 ADP)
15. DeVonta Smith, PHI (30.5 ADP)
16. Isaiah Likely, BAL (34.0 ADP)
17. David Njoku, CLE (38.2 ADP)
18. Jaylen Waddle, MIA (31.9 ADP)
19. Odell Beckham, BAL (48.0 ADP)
20. Jake Ferguson, DAL (40.8 ADP)
21. Brandin Cooks, DAL (32.9 ADP)
22. Dallas Goedert, PHI (46.4 ADP)
23. Gabe Davis, BUF (42.0 ADP)
24. Dalton Kincaid, BUF (42.1 ADP)
25. Khalil Shakir, BUF (54.9 ADP)

OVERALL

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
2. CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
3. Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
4. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
5. Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
6. Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
7. Brock Purdy, QB, SF
8. Josh Allen, QB BUF
9. Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
10. Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
11. George Kittle, TE, SF
12. Tony Pollard, RB, DAL
13. Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
14. Zay Flowers, WR, BAL
15. A.J. Brown, WR, PHI
16. Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
17. Travis Kelce, TE, KC
18. Rashee Rice, WR, KC
19. Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
20. Cooper Kupp, LAR
21. Puka Nacua, LAR
22. Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF
23. Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
24. DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI
25. Isaiah Likely, TE, BAL
26. Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
27. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
28. De'Von Achane, RB, MIA
29. Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA
30. James Cook, RB, BUF