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Odds Picks and Predictions for Sunday Night Football: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
A short-handed but feisty Chargers squad heads into the lair of the defending champion Chiefs for a primetime battle. Kansas City has seemingly squeaked out the majority of its victories, but can this game mark the start of a strong stretch run?
Let's dive into the latest odds plus bets and predictions for the prime time showdown.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Chargers +180 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Chiefs -200 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Point spread: Chargers +4 (Caesars Sportsbook)/ Chiefs -3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 43 points (BetRivers Sportsbook)/ Over 42.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The spread for this game has actually narrowed slightly over the last few days, as it sat at 4.5 before Week 13 action. Los Angeles recorded a narrow 17-13 win over the Falcons on the road and the Chiefs survived yet another squeaker against the Raiders two days earlier on Black Friday. That lead to betters moving this number down to as low as 3.5 before it bumped back up to 4 at most sportsbooks heading into the weekend.
The total has seen a dip, as it was at 44.5 before Week 13 action and then plummeted to as low as 42.5 earlier this week. It nudged back up to 43 at some sportsbooks, but the 42.5 figure persists in others.
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Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Picks
The loss of J.K. Dobbins to a multi-week knee injury seriously dings a Chargers offense that was relied heavily on their effective running attack for the majority of the season. However, with the team's clear top wideout Ladd McConkey now dealing with two injuries and questionable status for this game, Los Angeles looks extremely challenged to score points against what his already a high-quality defense on its home turf.
McConkey has surged in recent weeks, recording a 34-550-2 line on 42 targets over the last six games. The Georgia product even eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the third time in his career in Week 13 despite exiting the game after 28 snaps due to the knee injury . That issue, paired with his lingering shoulder problem, are the cause of the uncertainty surrounding his availability for this divisional showdown.
The rest of the Chargers' pass-catching corps has looked middling at best, even when factoring in Quentin Johnston's occasional TD outbursts. Johnston and Joshua Palmer have 24 catches apiece and have gotten downfield for their share of chunk plays, yet they face a KC defense that's allowed a middle-of-the-pack 10.0 yards per completion and that held them to a combined 4-45 line in a 17-10 Chiefs victory in Week 4.
Gus Edwards was adequate with his few opportunities as Dobbins' replacement in Week 13, but KC is outstanding against the run with just 87.8 rushing yards per game allowed, along with a miniscule 3.3 yards per carry to RBs. While Jim Harbaugh will very likely try to establish the ground game early, it is not a formula he can likely stick to over multiple quarters.
While the Chargers will put up a fight against a Chiefs team that struggles to separate from anyone, I think a win of at least five points isn't too much to ask against an undermanned offense that likely lines up without its top wideout.
Additionally, with Isiah Pacheco back as of last week and looking very effective with his seven carries across 22 snaps, plus a couple of extra days of rest, I like the Over on his rush attempts in a game where KC shouldn't have to be overly aggressive on offense.
- Chiefs -4 (-109 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
- Isiah Pacheco Over 11.5 rush attempts (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
Chiefs 24, Chargers 17
Patrick Mahomes has groused about his team's lack of convincing wins. I believe we see the star quarterback at least partly get his wish here. While a touchdown margin isn't particularly impressive, the Bolts are a tough opponent in any scenario. However, I just don't see them capable of fully keeping up without their best running back and with a limited or an absent McConkey.
