This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Week 18
The Chiefs have locked up the top seed in the AFC, while the Broncos need a win in Week 18 to make the playoffs. Let's dig into this AFC West showdown and highlight some of the top wagers to consider.
Mike Barner's season record: 49-53 (-9.70 units)
Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Odds
Broncos: Spread -10.5 (-108), -550 Moneyline (BetMGM)
Chiefs: Spread +10.5 (-112), +440 Moneyline (DraftKings)
Game Total: 40 points
Since the Chiefs have secured the top seed in the AFC, they will rest several starters. That should include Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Chris Jones.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Picks
Bo Nix over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Nix began his NFL career by not throwing a touchdown pass in any of his first three games. His first game with multiple touchdown passes didn't come until Week 5 against the Raiders. Starting in Week 5, Nix has thrown at least two touchdown passes in nine of his last 12 games. That includes at least two touchdown passes in each of his last three games.
When Nix faced the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 10, he recorded two touchdown passes. While Nix only has 10 touchdown passes over nine road games, he has tossed 15 touchdown passes across seven home games. With the Chiefs likely trotting out backups at several positions on defense, Nix has a favorable opportunity to notch at least two touchdown passes again.
Marvin Mims Jr. over 31.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Mims was barely involved in the Broncos' offense to begin the season. However, he has received a total of 23 targets over the last six games. During that six-game span, Mims finished with at least 32 receiving yards five times. Last week, he exploded for eight receptions, 103 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals.
What I like about Mims is that he has been targeted on 25.4% of his routes run this season. Also, he averages 11.9 yards after the catch. During his recent six-game hot streak, that popped to 16.7 yards per reception. Don't expect the Chiefs' backups to be the ones to slow him down.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
It would be a major surprise if the Broncos don't win this game at home to lock up a playoff spot. The Chiefs will start Carson Wentz at quarterback and rest most of their top skill players on offense. This is a big line for the Broncos to cover, but with their motivation and home field, I lean towards them covering.
