Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Super Bowl itself might be less exciting than Sunday night's game between the home-team Lions face off against the Vikings – both teams 14-2 – for the title of the NFC North as well as the first playoff seed in the NFC. The Detroit defense heads into the game battered while the Vikings' standout defense appears to be at full strength, arguably leaving the Lions with a slightly disadvantageous timing here despite their otherwise considerable home-field advantage. A shootout is expected with the over/under set at 56.5 and the Lions favored by 3.0 points.

QUARTERBACK

Either quarterback makes sense as a pick in this game, because both are expected to be productive. The hard part is picking the right combination of players in a game where several might offer high-scoring returns. Picking the quarterback from an offense is a way to get some of that offense's production without picking its pass catchers, so a person might pick Sam Darnold ($9400 DK, $14000 FD) or Jared Goff ($9600 DK, $14500 FD) either for stacking purposes or for the purposes of fading the rest of that offense while otherwise only stacking players from the other side. Both sides are fully expected to shoot it out in this one, so realistically approaching this slate might require multiple entries that go all-in on particular game scripts, because it's not affordable to make room for the many blue-chip options in this game.

RUNNING BACK

Jahmyr Gibbs ($11600 DK, $13500 FD) is one of the most pressing questions of the slate, because he has arguably the highest potential point total among non-quarterbacks, yet his price makes him difficult to afford in a game with many desirable picks. Gibbs' high price could make him a means of distinction for the top-cashing teams, but if he doesn't score in accordance with his high price then he could make it difficult to afford the necessary combo of other players to make up for it. With that said, Gibbs torched the Vikings the last time these teams played. Craig Reynolds ($3000 DK, $7000 FD) would normally be the top backup to Gibbs, but Reynolds is questionable with a back injury. If Reynolds is out then some unspecified combo of Sione Vaki and Jermar Jefferson would need to replace him.

Aaron Jones ($8400 DK, $11500 FD) is nowhere near Gibbs' level, but even Jones is a tough fade in this game. He's probably not in the top five for projected points in this game, yet Jones remains a capable player and the previously dominant Detroit run defense is so battered by now that they might be somewhat vulnerable at the moment. The case against Jones here might be that his upside scenario could require a face-planting scenario by the Detroit offense and defense both, as Jones' volume limitations make him dependent on a combination of touchdowns and a disappointing field to place at the top of it. Cam Akers ($3400 DK, $7500 FD) has pressed Jones' margins a little and has an apparent role as the team's power-running specialist, but unless the Lions faceplant here it's tough to see where Akers' opportunity would occur.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Justin Jefferson ($11400 DK, $15000 FD) is always a compelling pick on single-game slates, and a projected shootout like this is no exception. It seems like a near certainty that Jefferson has a big game here – the only thing that could seemingly work against him is that the scoring might be rather inclusive in this game, to the point that lesser but much cheaper players than Jefferson end up providing better returns for the fantasy dollar. Jordan Addison ($7400 DK, $11000 FD) is very good in his own right and could be one such player who provides a similar point total to Jefferson at a much cheaper figure, but both players in a Darnold stack is tough to argue against too. If Jefferson or Addison falter at all then T.J. Hockenson ($5400 DK, $9500 FD) is a great candidate to fill some of the void. Jalen Nailor ($4400 DK, $8000 FD) has shown the ability to produce as the Vikings' WR3, but generally it's not possible for Nailor and TE2 Josh Oliver ($1200 DK, $7000 FD) to be on the field at the same time, and Oliver has been a standout for the Vikings in his own right.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($10600 DK, $13000 FD) is an exceedingly tough fade, even if a person is more so looking to stack the Minnesota offense. St. Brown tends to get going whenever the Vikings need him to, which they do here, so if he doesn't then it might indicate that the Lions fell flat, or at least that the Vikings offense went nuts. Those are possibilities, but they don't seem like the probable ones after St. Brown caught eight passes for 112 yards and a touchdown on eight targets in the last matchup.. Jameson Williams ($7600 DK, $10500 FD) and Sam LaPorta ($5800 DK, $10000 FD) might prove two of the most important pivot points in the slate, because both fall below the Blue Chip category of the quarterbacks, Gibbs, Jefferson and St. Brown, yet either could be the heirs to the boon of any of the blue-chip players disappointing. At the very least, Williams and LaPorta make compelling affordable picks for a Goff stack. Tim Patrick ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) has just one target in the last two games, but he makes sense either as a stack component or as a fade against the more expensive Detroit receivers. Brock Wright ($1600 DK, $7000 FD) is another punt play option as a blocking tight end.

KICKER

As a sixth-round pick and former Alabama starter Will Reichard ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) has better pedigree than Jake Bates ($5000 DK, $90000 FD), who was undrafted after not being allowed to attempt field goals at Arkansas, but so far it's Bates who's proven the better kicker. Reichard has been fine himself and has attempted over 1/3 of his field goals from beyond 50 yards, but Bates likely has slightly better range and has been more accurate than Reichard this year from 40 to 49 yards. Both kickers are capable of logging double-digit fantasy points in this one, but it also wouldn't be shocking if either team eschewed field-goal attempts to go for touchdowns instead.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Neither defense is an advisable pick in this game with the over/under being as high as it is, but perhaps there might be some slim chance either of the quarterbacks in this game has an otherwise inexplicable turnover meltdown. Both quarterbacks have shown the ability to become turnover-prone both with and without stressors, but both quarterbacks also play within systems that basically make their jobs easy. A lot of money has been spent on the shootout occurring here, and so by now there has been a lot of research on this question. We can't know this will be a high-scoring game, but basically all of the evidence points toward it.