DraftKings NFL: Week 18 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 18 slate includes 13 games, but the majority of teams have little or nothing for which to play. Various key players are out and other important news won't come until late Saturday or Sunday. I'll wait until then to finalize important decisions. For the most part, though, I'll target teams and players with motivation to win. At least when spending significant salary. The teams that have little or nothing to play for are good sources for cheap value as backups will play prominent roles. I highlighted some of the better options in this article as well as a few of my favorite ideas for tournaments. Good Luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the main slate of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with rostering some chalk.

• RB Zamir White vs. DEN ($6,000)

There are six running backs priced $5,900 to $6,500 who project as strong value but none stands out as the obvious choice. White has impressed since stepping into the starting role three weeks ago. He has 20-plus carries in back-to-back games and surprised a few people by catching five passes last week. The Raiders have a favorable matchup at home against the Broncos where the likely game script sets up well. James Conner ($6,100) is similar option. He has six TDs in his last four games and scored at least 20 fantasy points in three. He's playing in the highest-totaled game on the slate and the Seahawks haven't been able to stop the run lately. Finding the salary for Tony Pollard ($6,500) would make sense too. He'll be relatively popular as the Cowboys have the highest implied total. 

• WR Christian Kirk at TEN ($3,000)

We won't know if Kirk is going to play until Saturday at the earliest, but he's trending in the right direction after practicing all week. Unfortunately, DraftKings didn't expect him to be back and left his salary at the $3K minimum. That would leave us without much of decision in cash games as he'd be popular and there'd be almost no reason to fade. In tournaments, however, there would be plenty of reason to fade as it's quite possible he has a limited role. Not to mention all of the Jags' pass-catchers are back healthy with the news that Zay Jones ($3,800) will play. Nevertheless, Kirk would be a no brainer for cash games if he starts. If he's out, pivoting to Jones would make sense as he'd become one of the better cheap values at WR. All of this is assuming that Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) starts. If he doesn't, I'm out on the Jags.

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jalen Hurts at NYG ($8,100)

QB Dak Prescott at WAS ($8,000)

QB Justin Fields at GB ($7,200)

QB Geno Smith at ARI ($6,100)

QB Nick Mullens at DET ($5,100)

RB Rachaad White at CAR ($7,600)

RB Tony Pollard at WAS ($6,500)

RB Kenneth Walker at ARI ($6,500)

RB Aaron Jones vs. CHI ($6,300)

RB James Conner vs. SEA ($6,100)

RB Zamir White vs. DEN ($6,000)

RB Ezekiel Elliott vs. NYJ ($5,900)

RB Jordan Mason vs. LAR ($4,600)

RB Pierre Strong at CIN ($4,000)

WR CeeDee Lamb at WAS ($9,300)

WR Justin Jefferson at DET ($8,500)

WR Tyler Lockett at ARI ($5,600)

WR Christian Kirk at TEN ($3,000)

TE Trey McBride vs. SEA ($6,000)

TE Dallas Goedert at NYG ($5,100)

TE Jake Ferguson at WAS ($4,900)

TE Gerald Everett vs. KC ($3,900)

TE Johnny Mundt at DET ($3,000)

TE Noah Gray at LAC ($2,500)

TE Davis Allen at SF ($2,500)

TE Harrison Bryant at CIN ($2,500)

D/ST Cincinnati Bengals vs. CLE ($3,000)

D/ST Los Angeles Chargers vs. KC ($2,800)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Seattle Seahawks (25) at Arizona Cardinals (22.5)

SEAHAWKS

This games stands out for a few reasons as one of the better ones to stack. First, it has the highest total and seems most likely to shoot out based on the close spread. Second, the Seahawks are one of only seven teams on this slate with clear motivation as they need a win to have any chance at making the playoffs. And third, matchups against Arizona have been favorable all season as the Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the league. Geno Smith ($6,100) has millions of dollars in incentives at stake. Not that he needs more motivation, but he's due an extra $2 million if he leads Seattle to playoffs. He projects as one of the best values at quarterback and will be popular as a result, but QB ownership is much of a concern. Especially when his WR's won't be too chalky. Tyler Lockett ($5,700) will carry the most ownership because he projects best from a point-per-dollar perspective, but both DK Metcalf ($7,200) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,800) are expected to be less than 10 percent rostered. That makes someone like Metcalf even more appealing as he's capable of outlier performances that can win a tournament. You could argue that it makes more sense to target the running game based on the fact the no team has allowed more fantasy points to RBs than Arizona. Hence, it looks like a great spot for Kenneth Walker ($6,500), who won't be as popular as he should be due to all the cheap value available at the position. That combined makes him one of the better GPP options on the board, in my opinion. 

CARDINALS

The Cardinals were impressive in coming from behind to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia last week and now they return home to sunny Arizona to face a Seahawks defense that hasn't stopped anyone recently. Kyler Murray ($6,400) is coming off his best game of the season and is one of only a handful of QBs on this slate capable of scoring 30 fantasy points. He won't be popular either, which makes him stand out as one of the better leverage options at the position. Pairing him with Trey McBride ($6,000) would be my preferred route but Greg Dortch ($4,600) and Michael Wilson ($4,400) are viable as well. Dortch caught all seven of his targets last week while Wilson busted out of a mini slump with four catches and a touchdown. I like McBride because the TE position is relatively weak and a ceiling game could provide big separation. Fading the passing game in favor of James Conner ($6,100) would make sense too. Conner's coming off season highs in touches (27) and scrimmage yards (133) against the Eagles. He's topped 22 fantasy points in three of the last four games while scoring six touchdowns in that span. Similar to Walker, he won't be too popular either. 

• Favorite Seahawks Stack: QB Smith + WR Metcalf + RB Conner and/or TE McBride
• Favorite Cardinals Stack: QB Murray + RB Walker + TE McBride

Dallas Cowboys (30) at Washington Commanders (17)

COWBOYS

This one is pretty self-explanatory. Dallas has the highest implied total on the slate and one of the best projected players at every position. The Cowboys also still have everything to play for with the division title and No. 2 seed in the NFC up for grabs. The Commanders' defense has been awful all season and gave up 45 points to the Cowboys when they met in Week 12. Dak Prescott ($8,000) has played at an MVP level and will look to end the regular season on a high note. CeeDee Lamb ($9,300) has at least one TD in eight consecutive games and is coming off a monster 13-catch, 227-yard performance against the Lions last week. Jake Ferguson ($4,900) has drawn at least eight targets in four of the last five. Although he's had a stellar season, I'll probably avoid Brandin Cooks ($5,200) as he normally doesn't draw enough targets to pay off a salary that's reached its highest point of the season. It's a great spot for Tony Pollard ($6,500), who projects well and is expected to be one of the chalkier RBs. Pairing him with Prescott would be a way to get leverage, but I'm more likely to fade him in tournaments in favor of someone less popular. 

COMMANDERS

I can't say I have any interest in rostering Sam Howell ($5,200), but the Commanders have a couple options that would help bring correlation and leverage to Cowboys stacks. Terry McLaurin ($5,500) is the obvious one. We saw him flash a 29-point ceiling a couple weeks ago and he won't be popular at all this week. Keep an eye on the status of Curtis Samuel (hamstring), who did not practice this week. If he's ruled out, not only does McLaurin become a better option but Jahan Dotson ($3,800) would also become viable. Remember that it isn't mandatory to roster a Commander if you're stacking the Cowboys, but it worth considering at the least. Brian Robinson ($5,400) will be essentially unowned, but he's healthy again and we just saw the Bills rush for 266 yards against this defense a few weeks ago. Someone like him or McLaurin would offer all the leverage you need. 

• Favorite Cowboys Stack 1: QB Prescott + WR Lamb + WR McLaurin +/- TE Ferguson
• Favorite Cowboys Stack 2: QB Prescott + RB Robinson + WR Lamb +/- TE Ferguson
• Favorite Cowboys Stack 3: RB Pollard + WR Lamb + WR McLaurin

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown + WR Wan'Dale Robinson/WR Darius Slayton +/- TE Dallas Goedert

QB Justin Fields + RB Aaron Jones or WR Jayden Reed + WR DJ Moore or TE Cole Kmet

QB Jordan Love + WR DJ Moore + WR Jayden Reed +/- TE Tucker Kraft

QB Baker Mayfield + WR Mike Evans or WR Chris Godwin + WR DJ Chark

QB Tyrod Taylor + WR Wan'Dale Robinson or WR Darius Slayton + WR A.J. Brown

QB Nick Mullens + RB Jahmyr Gibbs and/or WR Amon-Ra St. Brown + WR Justin Jefferson

QB Carson Wentz + RB Jordan Mason + TE Davis Allen

High-Priced Heroes

• WR CeeDee Lamb at WAS ($9,300)

Lamb has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. We just saw it again last week when he caught 13 passes for 227 yards and a touchdown against the Lions. The Cowboys need to win and the matchup is about as good as it gets against the Commanders woeful defense. There's some blowout risk, but if Dallas scores 35 points by halftime, there's a good chance Lamb will be a big part of it. Either way, I'm considering him a lock in cash games. 

• WR Justin Jefferson at DET ($8,500)

If Lamb has the highest ceiling then Jefferson has the second highest. The Vikings need a win and have a nice matchup, indoors at Ford Field against a Lions defense that's been torched by No. 1 WRs recently. We know that Nick Mullens isn't afraid to chuck it all over the field and with T.J. Hockenson out, you'd figure he'll rely on Jefferson even more. I'm not sure who I prefer between him and Lamb, but I plan on rostering both in cash games as it looks like there will be plenty of value at the other positions to afford it. 

Honorable Mentions: WR DK Metcalf ($7,200); WR Mike Evans ($7,400); WR A.J. Brown ($8,700)

Fading the Field

• RB Tony Pollard at WAS ($6,500)

Just to be clear, my recommendation to fade Pollard applies to GPPs and not cash games. I chose him because he's expected to be among the most popular RBs with Dallas needing a win and their offense in a great spot. I'm hesitant to eat that chalk because Pollard hasn't shown much of ceiling this season. He's yet to top 23 fantasy points in a game and scored more than 20 just twice. He's coming off three consecutive games in the single digits and now Rico Dowdle is back to steal a few touches. Mostly I'd just rather target the Cowboys passing game and take some chances on less popular RBs, with there being a few other good options in the same salary range as Pollard. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Jordan Mason vs. LAR ($4,600)

Christian McCaffrey is out while Elijah Mitchell (illness) is questionable. Even if Mitchell plays, the 49ers aren't expected to play their starters/veterans more than a quarter. It seems like Mason is in line to see most of the work no matter what and the matchup is quite favorable, at home against a Rams team that will also rest most of their players. Elsewhere, keep an eye on the Cleveland news as the Browns have no reason to risk Jerome Ford or Kareem Hunt. Pierre Strong ($4,000) looks set to be the lead back and for the minimum salary would be viable in any format.

Honorable Mentions: RB Pierre Strong ($4,000); RB Ronnie Rivers ($4,000)

The Bargain Bin

QB Tyrod Taylor vs. PHI ($5,300)

QB Nick Mullens at DET ($5,100)

QB Easton Stick vs. KC ($5,000)

QB Carson Wentz at SF ($4,500)

QB Jeff Driskel at CIN ($4,000)

RB Jordan Mason vs. LAR ($4,600)

RB Pierre Strong at CIN ($4,000)

RB Ronnie Rivers at SF ($4,000)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at ARI ($4,800)

WR Rashid Shaheed vs. ATL ($4,700)

WR Greg Dortch vs. SEA ($4,600)

WR Demario Douglas vs. NYJ ($4,400)

WR Michael Wilson vs. SEA ($4,400)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. PHI ($4,200)

WR Darius Slayton vs. PHI ($4,000)

WR Zay Jones at TEN ($3,800)

WR DJ Chark vs. TB ($3,700)

WR Christian Kirk at TEN ($3,000)

TE Johnny Mundt at DET ($3,000)

TE Noah Gray at LAC ($2,500)

TE Davis Allen at SF ($2,500)

TE Harrison Bryant at CIN ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• QB Trevor Lawrence at TEN

According to coach Doug Pederson, Lawrence is a game-time decision as he deals with shoulder and finger injuries. If he doesn't start, I won't have much interest in the Jags pass-catchers

• WR Christian Kirk at TEN

Kirk's status will remain in the air until at least Saturday. Either him or Zay Jones ($3,800) will stand out as one of the better cheap values at WR, assuming Lawrence also starts. 

Weather

• It's going to be cold, windy and snowy in New England. The total is all the way down to 30.5 points. Not a good spot for passing and receiving, but I wouldn't downgrade the RBs.