This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Futures: Best Patriots Bets for 2023
Last year, the Patriots won eight games, which is the number of wins they've averaged in the three years since Tom Brady left. Although some of the record was before his days in New England, Bill Belichick's record without Brady is 79-87.
Currently, at 7.5 wins at DraftKings Sportsbook, the over for the Patriots is +140 and the under is -160. On DraftKings, the totals can be changed. Betting the Patriots under 6.5 wins has more favorable odds of +120. I'll be outlining the case to consider betting under 7.5 wins. Check out all of the 2023 NFL Futures here at RotoWire. Want more NFL futures content? Be sure to read our Ravens Futures, Bengals Futures, Vikings futures and Browns futures breakdowns.
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Can The Patriots Do It With Defense?
Going back to last year, the Patriots were 1-9 last year when facing opponents that had their No. 1 QB healthy. In other words, they padded their record against teams that weren't at their best. Some of the QBs they earned victories were against Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson, Colt McCoy, Sam Ehlinger, Zach Wilson (on two occasions), Jacoby Brissett and Mitch Trubisky.
When we think of Bill Belichick, we think of great defenses. And although their defense allowed the 11th-fewest points in the league, the fact that they had seven games against backup-quality QBs makes us wonder if they have the firepower to hold up against above-average offenses. Even though they have some excellent players, led by Josh Uche and Matthew Judon, they lack true game-changers. They seemed to get a steal in the draft when CB Christian Gonzalez fell to them in the first round, but it's unclear with any rookie as to how quickly they will acclimate to the NFL. With so many high-powered offenses in the AFC, it's difficult to see the Patriots being able to consistently slow them down.
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What Does the Offense Bring to the Table?
As a rookie in 2021, Mac Jones was serviceable. He threw for 3,801 yards with a 22:13 TD:INT ratio. That's usually enough to provide optimism for a second-year jump in production. However, Belichick decided to let Matt Patricia and Joe Judge run the offense last year. Between coaching and a lack of high-end talent, Jones and the offense was a disaster.
During the offseason, New England did address the issue. They hired Bill O'Brien to run the offense. He'll be a massive upgrade over last year. Also, O'Brien coached Mac Jones at Alabama, so look for some RPO concepts to help Jones improve. Despite the optimism, an offense needs playmakers to compete in the AFC. The Patriots will hope to get a second-year breakout from Tyquan Thornton, but it's unlikely he'll be a truly dominant player. Otherwise, the remaining options at wide receiver and tight end are unlikely to cause opposing defensive coordinators to lose any sleep when game planning. Even if Jones makes a jump this year, his weapons will likely keep him from raising the offense above league average.
Patriots Schedule
Aside from home games in Weeks 8 and 9 against the Commanders and Colts, there isn't a game on the schedule that appears to be a probable win. They also have some games that will give them decent chances to win against the Saints, Raiders and Broncos. In their division, they could struggle to win a game. Obviously, the Bills are one of the elite teams in the league. Then, it's likely that the Jets and Dolphins are superior to the Patriots on both offense and defense, especially after Miami hired Vic Fangio to run the defense. They will face three of last year's playoff teams in games against the NFC East. Also, in the first four weeks of the season, they face the Eagles, Dolphins, Jets and Cowboys. There is a chance they start out 0-4, and if that happens, morale could quickly fade, and their season could easily spiral out of control.
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Intangibles
It used to be that Bill Belichick had a massive advantage in coaching against most of his opponents. In the last few years, they no longer seem to have that same edge. The Patriots have not been able to 'steal' wins as they were able to in years past. From a talent perspective, this is no longer a team that opponents fear. In games that New England goes into as a 'coin flip' to win or lose, they do not appear to have the type of team to dominate those contests.
Best Patriots Future Bet For 2023
The safest bet is the Patriots winning fewer than 7.5 games. There is nothing favorable about their schedule. They no longer hold a dominant coaching advantage. It's possible they are easily the worst team in their own division. Also, it's unlikely this offense is a top-20 unit. I don't like the -160 odds, but getting to eight wins would take a significant amount of fortune. Although the odds are obviously much better for them to go under 6.5 wins (at +120 odds), I think the sweat factor rises significantly. I see them winning five or six games, but having a cushion makes sense. There could be games when they face a decimated opponent, or late in the season, they could play a team resting starters.
