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Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders
Two of the more surprising teams in either conference face off in the nation's capital when the Steelers and Commanders do battle Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh is winning with a strong defense as usual, but the passing game also shows signs of life under Russell Wilson.
Meanwhile, Washington's Jayden Daniels has played his way into the odds-on favorite for Rookie of the Year honors and the Commanders' defense appears more acclimated to head coach Dan Quinn's scheme with each passing week.
With a strong possibility of a highly competitive game, we break down odds and best bets.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Steelers +128 (FanDuel)/ Commanders -142 (DraftKings)
Point spread: Steelers +2.5 (+100 Bet MGM)/ Commanders -2.5 ( -118 FanDuel)
Totals: Under 45 points (DraftKings)/ Over 44.5 points (FanDuel)
The Commanders have sat as favorites for this game since before Week 9 action, but that number has only risen over time. Washington listed at -1.5 in the middle of last week, and that figure lifted up to -2.5 in the immediate aftermath of the Week 9 win over the Giants. The number got as high as –3 and has continued to fluctuate between there and 2.5 in recent days.
The total has moved through an even tighter range. It sat at 45 before Week 9, and it dipped briefly to 44.5 early in the week. However, it then shot up to 46 before being bet down a full point over the latter portion of the week, with the confirmed absence of Brian Robinson potentially playing at least a small role.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders Betting Picks
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The Steelers' season started off with plenty of uncertainty considering the arrival of a new offensive coordinator and two new quarterbacks. It has unfolded arguably better than even the coaching staff envisioned. Pittsburgh went into a conveniently timed Week 9 bye with a 6-2 record and a hold of the top of the AFC North after three consecutive victories.
Russell Wilson finally got a crack at running the offense in Week 8, after a season-opening calf strain and then a fairly successful starting tenure by Justin Fields prevented the multi-time Pro Bowler from taking the reins of the top job. Wilson was able to get his feet wet before the bye with a pair of starts and looked effective, completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 562 yards with a 3:0 TD:INT and a rushing TD. The bye provided him with a valuable extra set of practices to process those games and build further chemistry with his pass catchers.
One of those targets is new and carries plenty of upside – trade-deadline acquisition Mike Williams. The Steelers have looked for a complement to top wideout George Pickens. Although Van Jefferson has shown some flashes of late, he now slides into a more natural No. 3 role. Williams was woefully underused during his short stay with the Jets. However, timing may once again be on Pittsburgh's side, considering Williams should now be back to full strength after last season's ACL tear and is a two-time 1,000-yard receiver who can come down with the deep passes that Wilson often excels at.
Running back Najee Harris also checks in with three consecutive 100-yard performances and has put together quite the contract-year resume. The Steelers' defense has performed in signature fashion, recording 10 interceptions and accruing 19 sacks so far. Pittsburgh also allows just 288.5 total yards and 14.0 points per road game, making the Steelers an even more daunting opponent with the extra week to game plan.
The Commanders' body of work remains nothing short of remarkable, with the play of Daniels spearheading the team's 7-2 record. The Commanders do have backfield depth in the form of Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols. Likely include Chris Rodriguez as well, though they need to now promote him to the active roster since all they used up all three of his practice-squad elevations. On the other hand, this matchup leaves Daniels and co. facing the most talented all-around defense they've seen yet.
Consequently, my main bet here is the Steelers keep setbacks to field goal or less, and the game remains on the low-scoring side despite the offensive talent. An outright upset isn't out of the question, either, as I detail in my game prediction.
Steelers at Commanders Best Bets:
- Steelers +2.5 (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Under 45 points (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Steelers @ Commanders Prediction
Steelers 23, Commanders 21
The Steelers' veteran pedigree – which extends from its coaching staff through its most important position on offense and across to the defense – will help carry the day for Mike Tomlin's squad in this tough road battle. Robinson's absence matters even when considering Ekeler's presence, while Daniels now has put plenty on film and faces one of the most aggressive and athletic front sevens in the league. As such, I predict a potential upset here for the well-rested Steelers.
