This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
Intriguing fights abound at the top of the UFC 291 card, as two absolute warriors will meet for the second time at lightweight, while light heavyweight contenders vie for their place in the title picture. We'll take a look at all 12 fights across four platforms, including a few wrestlers who should get the job done and an underdog who will try to fight fire with fire. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Miranda Maverick ($9,400)
While Maverick's price tag may seem a bit prohibitive here, it's important to note that she has scored at least 110 points in three of her four UFC wins. "Fear The" should be in line for another dominant performance against Priscila Cachoeira, who has been handled by every strong wrestler she has faced in the organization. "Zombie Girl's" power is unique for this weight class, but Maverick should be smart enough with her entries to neutralize the threat and bring this fight to the ground.
Jake Matthews ($9,300)
I nearly screamed myself hoarse waiting for Matthews to try and wrestle Matthew Semelsberger, and while he found a lot of success when he finally scored a takedown late in Round 3, it wasn't nearly enough to swing the decision in his favor. The Australian fighter will have a chance at redemption against Darrius Flowers, who constantly comes forward and throws big shots in the pocket. Matthews can look good on the feet when he is dealing with an opponent who is willing to let him work, but if he isn't focused on grounding Flowers, "The Celtic Kid" will likely have another war on his hands.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima ($8,500)
This seems like a fairly straightforward pick on paper, as "Pezao" will be much faster, hits extremely hard, and can complement an active wrestling approach with a solid submission game from top position. Meanwhile, Derrick Lewis appears to be having the late-career dip we've all expected for so long, as he has been finished four times (three KO/TKOs, one submission) in each of his last four losses. However, De Lima rarely looks as good as expected, frequently burning most of his energy after the first round and having to limp to the finish line. By contrast, Lewis has always retained his power late in fights, which could put De Lima in a perilous situation if he can't end this bout in the first five minutes. I still think the Brazilian fighter has to be the pick here, but I will get a bit more nervous every time a minute falls off the clock.
Michael Chiesa ($7,800)
We go from a favorite I'm uncertain of to an underdog I absolutely love in Chiesa. Unlike our last matchup, this dynamic should be as clear cut as it seems, as the physically strong wrestler in Chiesa may need to eat some shots from a talented striker in Kevin Holland, but should eventually take advantage of "TrailBlazer's" 50 percent takedown defense rate. Holland hasn't shown much willingness to get back to his feet when he's been brought to the mat in the past, which should allow "Maverick" to melt away the minutes while landing shots from top position.
Michel Pereira ($7,400)
This is a fight that a version of Stephen Thompson from just a few years ago likely wins rather easily, as "Wonderboy" excels at taking apart sloppy strikers who try to overwhelm with power. The problem is that Thompson's takedown defense has looked markedly diminished of late, with the former welterweight title challenger being taken down at will by Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns. Astonishingly, Kevin Holland actually voluntarily relinquished dominant ground positions in his bout with Thompson he achieved with very little effort, a courtesy he almost certainly won't be extended by Pereira
Jan Blachowicz ($8,200)
Alex Pereira instantly becomes one of the best strikers at light heavyweight as soon as he officially makes the walk, but "Polish Power" has leaned on his grappling against slick strikers in the past, and "Poatan" looked lost on the ground for what amounted to a full round when Israel Adesanya took him down in their first fight. Pereira shouldn't be undersized for the weight class, but he won't be the first opponent Jan has surprised with his grappling strength. This fight is largely binary in outcome, and I don't think the former middleweight champion will be able to hurt Jan badly enough to deter him from his game plan.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
C.J. Vergara OVER 11.0 Minutes of Fight Time, Roman Kopylov UNDER 8.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Gabriel Bonfim OVER 6.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Projecting this fight to end inside the distance based on Vergara's finish of Daniel Lacerda seems odd, as the 27-year-old is a notorious glass cannon who has never seen the third round. While Vergara's speed can surprise opponents, Vinicius Salvador showed his toughness in his UFC debut against Victor Altamirano and has been finished just three times in 17 professional fights. Thus, I expect this to be your typical exciting flyweight scrap that gets decided on the judges' scorecards.
Kopylov is a kickboxer who likes to slow things down, but Claudio Ribeiro will allow no such thing, as the big-swinging Brazilian fighter has seen a third round just twice in 14 professional MMA bouts. The 31-year-old will likely once again look for a finish with every strike he throws, which will force Kopylov to start fast in return. Whether it be from the power of Ribeiro or the precision of his Russian counterpart, someone should get the stoppage with time to spare.
I'm fond of taking shots on "over" props when dealing with regional-scene killers, as it just may be the case that their previous opponents didn't know how to deal with the power and aggression. It's true that Bonfim locked up a quick submission in his UFC debut, but that guillotine was preceded by wild, flailing exchanges, during which neither man seemed to have an advantage. Trevin Giles is far from a perfect fighter but is agile with decent footwork. This should be enough to extend Bonfilm past the first round for the first time in his last three fights.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Dustin Poirier – 1.8 X Multiplier
Poirier's fight with Justin Gaethje should be just as exciting as the last time these two met in 2018, but I'm not convinced it will end any differently. While "The Highlight" was chewing the former interim lightweight champion's leg to bits with his trademark kicks, we saw Poirier make the late adjustment and sit down on left-handed bombs as counter shots, which ultimately led to the finish. That ability to adjust will once again be key, as Gaethje remains something of a one-note fighter who takes too many head strikes.
Uros Medic – 1.95 X Multiplier
Matthew Semelsberger has found success as a powerful combination striker, but I have a suspicion that those wins are more a product of physical attributes than anything else. He will stand across from a fighter who can match his height in Medic, and while "Semi the Jedi" will still own a four-inch reach advantage, the parity in height should make it harder for him to get as much done at range. This should open the door for the arguably more powerful striker in Medic to exploit his opponent's lack of defense, as Semelsburger has absorbed 4.21 strikes per minute in his UFC career.
Bets to Consider
Bobby Green wins via Knockout (+195)
It takes a particular kind of matchup for Green to be truly live for a knockout, and he should get exactly the right conditions in his fight with Tony Ferguson. Specifically, "King" will be able to land multiple times in the same sequence as he sticks and dodges a wild counter from his opponent before going back on the attack. Green's style of offense isn't all that different from a prime "El Cucuy," as he uses volume and pressure to melt the opposition. The issue is that Fergeson has looked less and less agile in recent years, which should allow Green to get going sooner than usual.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC 291 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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