This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Sunday's schedule at the Canadian Open includes women's semifinals from Toronto and a mix of quarterfinals and semifinals on the men's side in Montreal. The men played catch-up Saturday after a rainy few days, with numerous players having to play multiple matches in one day to almost get the tournament back on schedule. Three of the remaining four women are Americans, while an American man will be looking to pull off a major upset.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at the Canadian Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Canadian Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Diana Shnaider (+160) vs. Jessica Pegula
The way Shnaider has been playing lately, it would be more surprising if she didn't beat Pegula than if she took out the world No. 6 in this semifinal. Pegula is the defending champion here, but she has a relatively pedestrian 23-9 record in 2024 and has benefited from an easy path to the semifinals, beating three players ranked no higher than 45th after a first-round bye. Not only is the 24th-ranked Shnaider a step up in competition from a rankings standpoint, but the 20-year-old Russian has also played top-10 tennis lately. Shnaider's 17-2 in her last five tournaments and is going for her third title over that span. She's coming off back-to-back top-15 wins, 6-4, 6-1 over top-seeded Coco Gauff and and 4-6, 6-1, 6-4 over Liudmila Samsonova.
Sebastian Korda (+225) vs. Alexander Zverev
Korda has always had a knack for playing the best players tough; he has two wins and three three-set losses against Daniil Medvedev, and while he's 0-3 combined against Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, two of those were matches that Korda was a few points away from winning. The 24-year-old American is playing better tennis heading into this first career match against Zverev than he had been prior to any of those other matches against big-name opponents, as Korda won a 500-level hard-court title last week in DC before making this run to the quarterfinals. After an impressive 6-4, 7-6 (4) win over ninth-seeded compatriot Taylor Fritz yesterday, Korda benefited from a walkover against Casper Ruud in the Round of 16, so he didn't have to play two matches in one day and will be going on normal rest for this matchup between arguably the two best movers in tennis among players 6-foot-5 or taller.
Canadian Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Andrey Rublev (-300) vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Players tend to get a big bump in belief/confidence after beating one of the game's true elites, and Rublev should be the beneficiary of that phenomenon after his 6-3, 1-6, 6-2 quarterfinal win over Jannik Sinner handed the Italian world No. 1 only his second hard-court loss of 2024. The eighth-ranked Russian also has a much higher average level of play than Arnaldi to begin with, as Rublev's 31-15 with two titles in 2024 while Arnaldi's 24-18 without a title this year. Both of these players had to play two matches yesterday, but Arnaldi's fitness will be tested much more, as the 46th-ranked Italian played 48 games across his two matches compared to Rublev's 40. Arnaldi upset Rublev on clay at this year's French Open, but Rublev won their only other matchup in straight sets on hard court last year.
Canadian Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Hubert Hurkacz (-150) vs. Alexei Popyrin
Popyrin has had a nice run of upsets with back-to-back wins over top-15 players, but Hurkacz is the much better value with the odds surprisingly tight between these two big servers. Hurkacz has gotten through a pair of tight matches to reach this point, but the world No. 8 should only get better and better as he finds his game in his first tournament back from a knee injury he suffered at Wimbledon. Break points will likely be few and far between, and the sixth-ranked Pole should be able to handle late-set situations much more effectively than the 62nd-ranked Aussie considering Hurkacz has a 26-19 tiebreak record in 2024 while Popyrin's 7-10. Hurkacz also has a 3-0 head-to-head edge over Popyrin, with all three meetings coming at hard-court Masters 1000 events and resulting in straight-sets Hurkacz victories.
Amanda Anisimova (+110) vs. Emma Navarro
It isn't surprising to see the 15th-ranked Navarro in this all-American semifinal clash considering she boasts an impressive 43-15 record in 2024, though it's worth noting that this will be the first career semifinal at a WTA 1000 or Grand Slam event for the 23-year-old, and the pressure will be on Navarro against the 132nd-ranked Anisimova. While it's hard to believe because Anisimova has already seemingly had a full career's worth of trials and tribulations, she's actually the younger of these two players and doesn't turn 23 until the end of this month. After encountering numerous setbacks in both her personal and professional life, Anisimova finally seems to have returned to a good place both mentally and with her game, and her clean ball-striking this week has been reminiscent of the tennis that carried her to the French Open semifinals as a 17-year-old in 2019. Anisimova hasn't dropped a set en route to the semifinals while knocking off three consecutive top-10 seeds in Daria Kasatkina, Anna Kalinskaya and Aryna Sabalenka. Anisimova's superior power and timing off the ground will allow her to dictate play in this match, and if she plays at the same level she has displayed so far in this tournament, Navarro won't have any answers.
