This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The hectic 2024 tennis schedule presses on this week with the Canadian Open, also known as the National Bank Open. Main draw play begins Tuesday, with women's singles being held in Toronto this year while the men play in Montreal. This hard-court ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 event will have 56-player draws, with the top eight seeds in each field getting byes into the second round. All matches at the Canadian Open will be best-of-three sets, which is par for the course in the WTA game but different from the best-of-five format in men's Grand Slams.
Due to this event starting up just after the conclusion of the Olympics on clay in Paris, the fields in both draws are missing numerous big names, including men's medalists Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti, as well as women's medalists Qinwen Zheng, Donna Vekic and Iga Swiatek. Other big names that aren't participating in the Canadian Open due to either injury or rest purposes include Alex de Minaur (hip), Jiri Lehecka (back) and Rafael Nadal on the men's side, as well as Elena Rybakina (illness), Jasmine Paolini, Danielle Collins (undisclosed), Maria Sakkari, Barbora Krejcikova, Marketa Vondrousova and Mirra Andreeva on the women's side.
Futures odds for the Canadian Open are up on mobile sportsbooks such as DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook. The tournament title odds listed below are from DraftKings Sportsbook. You can also use those mobile betting apps to wager on individual matches. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook.
Canadian Open Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Jannik Sinner (+150) - Sinner will be looking to defend his 2023 Canadian Open title, which was the first Masters 1000 title of his career. Not only does Sinner benefit from the absences of Djokovic and Alcaraz, both of whom are resting after facing off in Sunday's Olympic gold medal match, but the No. 1 seed also has a favorable early draw. The best hard-court player he could face prior to the quarterfinals is unseeded American Frances Tiafoe, though Sinner will likely have to get through either Andrey Rublev or Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals, Daniil Medvedev in the semis and Alexander Zverev in the final for the Italian to secure his fifth title of 2024. He's 42-4 in 2024, including a Grand Slam title (Australian Open) and Masters 1000 title (Miami), both of which came on hard courts. The ill-timed bout of tonsillitis that sidelined Sinner for the Olympics is unlikely to affect his level here.
In the Mix
Alexander Zverev (+550) - With Djokovic and Alcaraz skipping this event and both Sinner and Daniil Medvedev in the other half of the draw, Zverev finds himself in perhaps the easiest half of a Masters 1000 draw that he's had in his whole career. After the second-seeded German, the other top-eight seeds in the bottom half of the draw are No. 4 Hubert Hurkacz, No. 6 Casper Ruud and No. 7 Grigor Dimitrov, each of whom has reached the quarterfinals or better at a hard court Grand Slam once since the start of 2020. Zverev could face Holger Rune in the Round of 16, then Ruud or Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals, and one of Hurkacz, Dimitrov, Ben Shelton or Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semis, but he would be an underdog against Sinner or Medvedev in the final considering Zverev's 18-6 hard-court record in 2024 is far less impressive than Sinner's 24-1 or Medvedev's 18-4. Zverev has lost 11 of his last 13 matchers against Medvedev but leads Sinner 4-1 in their head-to-head.
Daniil Medvedev (+600) - Medvedev's closer to Sinner than he is to the rest of the field in terms of hard court results in 2024, so the third-seeded Russian is a terrific value at +600 to win the title. The hard-court specialist has played in the final of five of the last seven hard-court Grand Slams. He fell in five sets to Sinner in the Australian Open final but got a modicum of revenge with a five-set grass-court win over Sinner in the Wimbledon quarterfinals to snap a five-match losing streak against the Italian and improve to 7-5 overall in their head-to-head. Medvedev could face compatriot Karen Khachanov in the Round of 16, then has Stefanos Tsitsipas as his chalk quarterfinal opponent before a potential semifinal showdown against Sinner, the winner of which would be favored in the final.
Sleepers
Taylor Fritz (+2500) - Fritz is an ideal spot in the draw, and the ninth-seeded American will be happy that Olympic bronze medalist Lorenzo Musetti isn't participating in this tournament after Musetti knocked him out in the Wimbledon quarterfinals and Olympic Round of 16. Fritz certainly has what it takes to hang with the sixth-seeded Ruud on a hard court if they face off in the Round of 16, and a win there could set up a rematch against Zverev, whom Fritz beat in five sets at Wimbledon. The big-serving Fritz is a solid all-court player, but his best results have come on hard courts, including his lone Masters 1000 title (2022 Indian Wells). Fellow top-10 American seed Tommy Paul (+3000) is also a promising sleeper considering Paul has won his last 12 matches against opponents other than Carlos Alcaraz, and No. 11 seed Ben Shelton (+3500) has the tools to make a deep run.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (+3000) - Auger-Aliassime has struggled to an 8-8 hard-court record in 2024, but he's playing much better tennis now than he was earlier in the year. The former world No. 6 reached the final of the Madrid Masters 1000 and semifinals of the Olympics on clay, which has traditionally been his worst surface. Adjusting back to hard courts on short notice won't be easy, but the 14th-seeded Canadian has the tools to thrill the crowd with a deep run in Montreal. If FAA's big serve and forehand are clicking, he could make a push to come out of the wide-open bottom half of the draw. Potential Round of 16 opponent Hurkacz hasn't played since Wimbledon due to a knee injury, so Auger-Aliassime could well find himself facing one of Dimitrov or Shelton with a semifinal berth on the line.
Arthur Fils (+8000) - Fils just missed being seeded here and has a tough first-round draw against 12th-seeded countryman Ugo Humbert, but the 23rd-ranked Frenchman is capable of not only getting through that match but making a deep run. Fils is coming into his own at age 20, having reached the Round of 16 at Wimbledon then won a clay-court ATP 500 in Hamburg. Fils' mix of power and variety make him a strong all-court performer, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him emerge as the quarterfinalist out of No. 8 seed Tsitsipas' section of the draw considering Tsitsipas has a history of fading in the second half of the year.
Fade
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1800) - Tsitsipas has the fourth-best title odds after Sinner, Zverev and Medvedev, but there are numerous factors working against him. For starters, the No. 8 seed could have to beat those three players consecutively to win the title. He has also lost his last three matches at this tournament and crashed out in his first match three times in five career Canadian Open appearances. Tsitsipas' 11-6 hard-court record in 2024 is also nothing to write home about, and he could have a hard time in the Round of 16 against Fils if both get there.
Canadian Open Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Aryna Sabalenka (+300) - Sabalenka has recovered from the shoulder injury that kept her out of Wimbledon but looked rusty at the Citi Open last week, falling to Marie Bouzkova in three sets. If she's at full strength, Sabalenka will be the player to beat in this significantly depleted draw, as she has won the last two Australian Opens and made at least the semifinals at each of the last four hard-court Grand Slams. Her path to the final is also extremely easy by WTA 1000 standards, as the other top-eight seeds in the bottom half of the draw are No. 4 Jelena Ostapenko, No. 5 Daria Kasatkina and No. 8 Emma Navarro. Chalk Round of 16 opponent Beatriz Haddad Maia isn't in Sabalenka's weight class on hard courts, and while Kasatkina, No. 10 seed Anna Kalinskaya or crowd favorite Bianca Andreescu would each present a unique quarterfinal challenge, Sabalenka would be a clear favorite over any of them.
In the Mix
Coco Gauff (+400) - Gauff is the top seed in a draw that's missing numerous big names due to injuries or rest associated with this hard-court tournament's start coming just after the conclusion of the Olympics on clay. The usual big four has been halved without Swiatek or Rybakina participating, and Sabalenka is still searching for her top form in her return from an injury, so Gauff's an appealing title pick at +400 odds. The reigning U.S. Open champion has some tricky floaters in her section, as Gauff could face Sofia Kenin in the second round, then surging No. 14 seed Diana Shnaider of Anastasia Potapova in the Round of 16, with Liudmila Samsonova or Ons Jabeur, then Jessica Pegula or Madison Keys as her chalk opponents in the quarterfinals and semifinals.
Jessica Pegula (+1800) - There's a massive drop in odds after Sabalenka and Gauff, with Pegula representing the most appealing choice of a secondary favorites group that includes Naomi Osaka (+1600), Paula Badosa (+1800), Jelena Ostapenko (+2000) and Emma Navarro (+2000). Pegula is the No. 3 seed, so she would have to win only five matches rather than six to defend her title here. The Buffalo, New York native has won multiple matches in only one of her last five tournaments but beat Gauff en route to a WTA 500-level title in the other event over that span, so the 30-year-old American has proven capable of putting together a title-winning week and will enjoy a home crowd advantage of sorts while playing a two-hour drive from her hometown.
Sleepers
Leylah Fernandez (+2800) - Fernandez has caught fire on North American hard courts before, reaching the final of the 2021 U.S. Open. The 15th-seeded Canadian is capable of putting together a similar run here in Toronto, as she's in the section of the draw with No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula, who had struggled to find consistency in 2024. Fernandez, Pegula, No. 7 seed Madison Keys and No. 12 seed Victoria Azarenka are the four seeds in their section, so one of those four will likely emerge as a semifinalist in Gauff's top half of the draw.
Madison Keys (+3000) - The last time we saw Keys, she was pushing eventual Wimbledon finalist Jasmine Paolini around the court in the Round of 16 but suffered an ill-timed leg injury while leading 5-2 in the third set and ultimately couldn't finish the match. If Keys can replicate her pre-injury level of play, she can certainly contend for this title, as the seventh-seeded American was 17-4 in her last 21 matches prior to the loss to Paolini. Five of Keys' six Grand Slam semifinals or better have come on hard courts, including her semifinal run at last year's U.S. Open.
Marta Kostyuk (+3500) - Kostyuk has a tough early path, as the 11th-seeded Ukrainian could face compatriot Elina Sivtolina in the second round and No. 8 seed Navarro in the Round of 16, but with unpredictable No. 4 seed Ostapenko as the top seed in Kostyuk's section and the uncertainty over No. 2 seed Sabalenka's form, the bottom half of the draw could get thrown wide open. Kostyuk is coming off a strong showing at the Olympics, as she pushed eventual silver medalist Donna Vekic to 10-8 in the third set tiebreak in the quarterfinals. That was the latest strong result for Kostyuk in 2024, as she also reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, the semifinals in Indian Wells and a pair of WTA 500-level finals.
Fade
Ons Jabeur (+3000) - Jabeur will have the benefit of not having to adjust from grass to clay to hard courts on short notice after skipping the Olympics, but she may have the unluckiest draw of any player in this tournament. She just missed a top-eight seed and bye by being seeded ninth, so instead of a free pass to the second round, Jabeur drew Osaka, who has had trouble stringing together multiple high-level performances in a row but has the skill set to overpower Jabeur with a big serve and groundstrokes. Should Jabeur get through Osaka, she could face another big hitter in Samsonova in the Round of 16 for a chance to play the top-seeded Gauff in the quarterfinals. Given Jabeur's 16-14 hard-court record over the last calendar year, she's unlikely to successfully navigate this difficult draw.
Sasha's Picks to Win Canadian Open
The men's draw will likely come down to the winner of Sinner-Medvedev in the semifinals. Sinner would be the rightful favorite in that match, but Medvedev is the far superior value when it comes to betting, and it's possible the Russian unlocked a new strategy against the Italian in Medvedev's win over Sinner at Wimbledon. I'm picking Daniil Medvedev to beat Sinner in the semis and win the final here to claim his seventh career ATP Masters 1000 title, and sixth on hard courts.
Coco Gauff is my pick to win the title on the women's side. With Sabalenka still scrambling to find her form and the other top contenders from recent big tournaments -- namely Swiatek, Rybakina, Paolini, Zheng, Krejcikova, Vekic and Andreeva -- sitting out, this tournament is Gauff's to lose. Of the nine players to reach the semifinals at the French Open, Wimbledon or Olympics, Gauff is the only one participating in this event. Gauff would have a lot more notable titles under her belt already if not for Swiatek, who has repeatedly blocked the 20-year-old American's path to glory with an 11-1 edge in their head-to-head.
