This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Cincinnati Open begins in earnest Tuesday with first-round action in both the men's and women's singles draw from what are quite possibly the fastest hard courts at any ATP Masters 1000 or WTA 1000 event. A few players who prefer slower clay courts could pick up some wins in favorable matchups despite the conditions, while some slumping players will have a hard time reversing their fortunes Tuesday.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at the Cincinnati Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Mariano Navone (+265) vs. Jiri Lehecka
Navone would definitely be a significant underdog on a quick court against an in-form Lehecka, but Lehecka has been sidelined since late April by a back injury. Even if the 35th-ranked Lehecka has been practicing, it's hard to simulate the pressure of a match situation, so he's unlikely to be at his best for this match. Navone is ranked only three spots behind Lehecka, but all 15 of the Argentine's 15 wins at the ATP Tour level have come on clay. Despite his lack of hard-court success, Navone's ability to keep the ball in play and get extra balls back could make him a tough matchup for Lehecka, who will likely be more error-prone than usual as he tries to shake off the rust after a long layoff.
Jordan Thompson (+160) vs. Ugo Humbert
Thompson has had a nice summer hard-court swing, going 6-3 with three top-50 wins. The 32nd-ranked Aussie will try to add another notable win to his ledger against the 17th-ranked Humbert, who is just 8-12 in his last 20 matches. Humbert's just 1-3 in his career at the Cincinnati Open, while Thompson played well here last year, getting through qualifying and pushing Carlos Alcaraz to 6-3 in the second round. Both players are have been at their best on hard courts in 2024, as Humbert's 16-6 on the surface while Thompson's 19-11.
Honorable Mention
Brandon Nakashima (+225) vs. Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Lorenzo Musetti (-240) vs. Nicolas Jarry
This is a match between one of the hottest players on the ATP Tour and the coldest member of the top 25. Musetti has climbed to 18th in the rankings thanks to a 20-5 record over his last five tournaments. He has made the semifinals or better of every event over that span, including a Wimbledon semifinal and a bronze medal at the Olympics. Musetti has been less effective on hard courts compared to grass and clay, but the 22-year-old Italian seems to have taken a major step forward regardless of surface over the past few months, and his .452 career hard-court win percentage is higher than Jarry's .430 mark. The slumping Chilean has lost five consecutive matches, with his last win coming three months ago. How the first set goes will dictate this match, as Jarry is 11-1 when winning the first set and 5-15 when he loses the first set in 2024, while Musetti has 24-2 and 7-18 splits for winning/losing the first set.
Ben Shelton (-225) vs. Reilly Opelka
Shelton and Opelka are both big servers, but Shelton has a lot more game to back up his serve, while Opelka is still working his way back from a lengthy injury-related absence. This is Opelka's fourth tournament back after he missed nearly two full years, and the 6-foot-11 American has gone 5-3 overall but just 1-3 against top-80 opponents. The lone top-80 win is against Adrian Mannarino, who is 1-15 in his last 16 matches. While Shelton's unlikely to generate many break points, Opelka may not even get a sniff at a break of serve against his 14th-ranked compatriot.
Honorable Mention
Karolina Pliskova (-225) vs. Viktoriya Tomova
Cincinnati Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Sebastian Baez (+135) vs. Marcos Giron
Baez definitely plays his best tennis on clay, but the 20th-ranked Argentine is a nice value as the underdog against the 45th-ranked Giron. The American isn't exactly a feared opponent on hard courts, with an 8-8 record on the surface this season and a 65-72 mark in his career. Giron is usually adept at redirecting his opponent's power, but Baez won't give him much to work with in this battle between counterpunchers. The quicker Baez will have more margin for error in their numerous extended rallies, as neither player has the power to end points quickly. Baez won their only previous encounter, though that one came on clay, where Baez has won five of his six titles. The 23-year-old Baez also won a hard-court title last year, while Giron's lone title is on grass.
Daria Kasatkina (-140) vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
Kasatkina is ranked 12th, 16 spots ahead of her struggling Russian compatriot Alexandrova. Since an impressive semifinal run in Miami, Alexandrova has been locked in a tailspin, going 6-10 in 16 subsequent matches to fall to 18-17 in 2024. Kastatkina has a rock-solid 28-15 record this year, and while Alexandrova can do much more damage on the serve, Kasatkina's much more solid off the ground. They have split four previous meetings but haven't played since 2022.
Honorable Mention
Marta Kostyuk (-185) vs. Elise Mertens
