This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Third-round action commences at the Cincinnati Open on Friday, while the second round wraps up after rain ended play prematurely Thursday. A couple more big names on the women's side could be in danger of suffering early exits Friday after two of the top four seeds were knocked out Thursday, while a pair of heavy hitters in the men's draw will look to use their power off the ground to counteract their opponents' superior serves.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at the Cincinnati Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Marta Kostyuk (+900) vs. Iga Swiatek
Swiatek should be favored in this match considering she's the world No. 1, but Kostyuk's odds are massively underrating her chances of notching the upset. Swiatek has the hardest time on faster surfaces, and she came into this tournament with just a 5-5 career record at the Cincinnati Open. She dropped a set in her first-round win over 69th-ranked Varvara Gracheva, and the 21st-ranked Kostyuk is a far tougher opponent. Kostyuk has already beaten former world No. 12 Elise Mertens and Wimbledon quarterfinalist Lulu Sun at this event, and the Ukrainian's season highlights include quarterfinal performances at both the Australian Open and the Olympics, as well as a semifinal showing in Indian Wells. While Kostyuk didn't put up much of a fight in a 6-2, 6-1 Indian Wells semifinal loss to Swiatek, that match was on one of the slowest hard courts on the WTA schedule while Cincinnati's hard courts play among the fastest.
Elina Svitolina (+210) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Svitolina has played Sabalenka extremely tough over the years. Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 3-1, but three of their four matches have gone to a deciding set, and Sabalenka just barely squeaked out a win 9-7 in the third set tiebreak when they met in Rome earlier this year. The world No. 3 is still trying to find her game after returning from a shoulder injury, as Sabalenka's just 5-2 since returning to action, with two losses to players ranked outside the top 40. Svitolina has slipped to 29th in the rankings in what has been a subpar season by the top-15 staple's lofty standards, but the Ukrainian's ability to get extra balls back could lead to errors and frustration from Sabalenka if the favorite continues to be a bit off with her timing.
Honorable Mention
Elina Avanesyan (+200) vs. Liudmila Samsonova
Cincinnati Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Andrey Rublev (-215) vs. Brandon Nakashima
Rublev handled Nakashima 6-2, 6-2 at the Canadian Open last week, and their only other career hard-court meeting had a similar 6-2, 6-1 score line in the Russian's favor. Nakashima beat Rublev on clay earlier this year, but the 49th-ranked American seems to struggle to handle Rublev's blistering forehands on faster courts. Nakashima upset American compatriot Taylor Fritz in the first round here, but he beat Tommy Paul in Canada immediately before being manhandled by Rublev. While Nakashima will likely make some adjustments and keep this match closer than last week's encounter, he's unlikely to completely turn the tables on the sixth-ranked Rublev.
Honorable Mention
Jannik Sinner (-800) vs. Jordan Thompson
Cincinnati Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Jiri Lehecka (+105) vs. Frances Tiafoe
Lehecka was playing like a breakout star to begin 2024 before missing a significant chunk of the season due to a back injury, but he's back like he never left. The 22-year-old Czech is back like he never left at this event, as he's coming off a straight-sets second-round upset over world No. 5 Daniil Medvedev. That win improved Lehecka to 19-9 in 2024, including six top-20 wins. Tiafoe has a disappointing 21-18 record this year and has dropped to 27th in the rankings. That's eight spots ahead of Lehecka, but Lehecka would almost certainly be in the top 20 had he not been sidelined since April. Tiafoe has the bigger serve, but Lehecka can match the American's power off the ground and will have an easier time getting the upper hand in rallies thanks to a far superior backhand.
Casper Ruud (+125) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Ruud's a nice value as a slight underdog in this match considering the eighth-ranked Norwegian has been the far better hard-court player all year. The 2022 U.S. Open runner-up has an excellent 19-5 record on this surface, while the 19th-ranked Auger-Aliassime has struggled to a 9-9 hard-court record, including a remarkable 0-9 mark against players ranked in the top 75. While FAA's coming off a surprisingly strong clay-court season that included a pair of wins over Ruud, and the fast hard courts in Cincinnati suit the big serving Canadian better than they do Ruud in theory, Auger-Aliassime hasn't proven capable of beating a player anywhere near Ruud's caliber on hard courts all year.
Honorable Mention
Diana Shnaider (-125) vs. Leylah Fernandez
