This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Cincinnati Open begins in earnest Tuesday, though the tournament organizers decided to kick off the action early with two men's singles first-round matches in Monday's night session. The draws for both the men's and women's singles are substantially more stacked at this hard-court ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 event than they were in the preceding such event at the Canadian Open, which came right after tennis concluded at the Olympics. Numerous top players chose to skip the Canadian Open but will be back in action here, including women's world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and men's world No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz. This tournament will have 56-player draws, with the top eight seeds in each field getting byes into the second round. All matches at the Cincinnati Open will be best-of-three sets, which is par for the course in the WTA game but different from the best-of-five format in men's Grand Slams.
The list of missing top players isn't nearly as large here as it was last week, but defending champion Novak Djokovic won't play as he continues to bask in his Olympic glory, while Alex de Minaur (hip) remains sidelined and Rafael Nadal may be done for good, having withdrawn from both this event and the U.S. Open. On the bright side, Jiri Lehecka (back) is back for his first action since Madrid in April. Ons Jabeur (shoulder), Madison Keys (thigh), Danielle Collins (undisclosed), Maria Sakkari, Barbora Krejcikova and Marketa Vondrousova are the notable absentees on the women's side. On the bright side, a number of big names are in the Cincinnati women's draw after skipping Canada, including all three Olympic women's singles medalists -- Qinwen Zheng, Donna Vekic and Swiatek -- as well as world No. 4 Elena Rybakina and No. 5 Jasmine Paolini, plus teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva.
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Cincinnati Open Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Carlos Alcaraz (+140) - Alcaraz's loss to Djokovic in the gold medal match was just his second defeat in the last 22 matches. That stretch included two Grand Slam titles for the Spanish sensation, but it's worth noting that none of those results came on hard courts. Alcaraz's ceiling is higher than anyone else's on any surface, but hard courts are shaping up to be his least effective surface, as his winning percentage on hard is "only" .752, compared to .818 on clay and .889 on grass. It took a monumental effort from Djokovic in the final here last year to deny Alcaraz the title, but considering this will be Alcaraz's first hard-court event since March, it makes sense to take the field over the No. 2 seed in this case. After a first-round bye, Alcaraz could get an early test from Alexei Popyrin, who is in the final of the Canadian Open. Holger Rune, Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas aren't pushovers, but those seeds in Alcaraz's section haven't shown enough lately to have a realistic chance if he's on his game. Daniil Medvedev could present a more significant challenge in the semis, though.
In the Mix
Jannik Sinner (+210) - Sinner is the clear second-favorite to win the title here, having just suffered only his second hard-court loss of 2024 against Andrey Rublev at the Canadian Open. The top-seeded Italian won the Australian Open and Miami Open on hard courts earlier this year. Cincinnati has some of the fastest conditions of any event on the tennis calendar, and Sinner's high-powered game should work well on these fast hard courts. After a nondescript early draw, he gets a potential shot at revenge against Rublev in the quarterfinals, with Alexander Zverev as his chalk semifinal opponent and likely Alcaraz or Medvedev in the final.
Daniil Medvedev (+700) - Medvedev looked like a great value last week in Canada, too, only to crash out in his first match, but the fourth-seeded Russian remains a terrific bet here in Cincy. He's closer to Sinner and Alcaraz than the rest of the field in terms of hard-court proficiency, having played in the final of five of the last seven hard-court Grand Slams. Medvedev also knows what it takes to go all the way at this event, having won it back in 2019. Potential Round of 16 opponent Lorenzo Musetti has been playing great tennis, but a fast hard court is the exact surface Medvedev would handpick to play Musetti on. He would also be favored against Hubert Hurkacz or Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals, and while Medvedev is 2-5 against Alcaraz, the 6-foot-6 Russian has proven he can win on a big hard-court stage, having clipped the Spaniard in the semifinals of last year's U.S. Open.
Alexander Zverev (+1000) - Zverev can beat anybody on a good serving day, especially in best-of-three sets, and he won this title in 2021, so he's a legitimate contender. That said, he has the toughest path on paper of the top four seeds. The winner of Karen Khachanov-Francisco Cerundolo will be an awfully tough second-round draw, and potential Round of 16 opponent Sebastian Korda just beat Zverev at the Canadian Open en route to the semifinals. Grigor Dimitrov and Ben Shelton both have big games that should fit well in these conditions and can trouble Zverev in the quarterfinals, and the prize for getting through that gauntlet is likely a semifinal showdown with Sinner.
Sleepers
Andrey Rublev (+2800) - Winning the Canada-Cincy double is tough, but Rublev is in contention to do so, assuming he can take care of Popyrin in Montreal on Monday night. The big-hitting Russian reached the final of this tournament in 2021 and can blow the ball by opponents consistently on these fast hard courts. Having just beaten Sinner in Canada, Rublev wouldn't be intimidated in a potential quarterfinal rematch, though Taylor Fritz or Arthur Fils would present a tricky Round of 16 match before then.
Sebastian Korda (+2800) - Korda's ability to play the top players close has suggested he may ultimately have the highest ceiling among this generation of American players, and the 24-year-old son of former Australian Open champion Petr Korda and brother of world No.1 LPGA golfer Nelly Korda is starting to make the most of his good genes. Sebi has climbed to a career-high ranking of No. 15 after winning a 500-level title in Washington and backing that up with wins over Fritz and Zverev en route to the semis in Montreal. His loss to Popyrin at the Canadian Open was disappointing, but Korda gets a bit of a pass because it was the second match of the day for both players and he was coming off a grueling battle with Zverev, whom he could face again in the Round of 16 here.
Ben Shelton (+5000) - Shelton burst onto the scene at this very tournament two years ago, beating Ruud in straight sets less than a month before Ruud went on to make his second Grand Slam final of the year at the U.S. Open. With a tremendous lefty serve and no shortage of power off both wings, Shelton has the tools and aggressive gamestyle to put together a deep run in these conditions. Hard courts are by far the favorite surface of the 2023 U.S. Open semifinalist, and while the 21-year-old American is still learning to make the most of his impressive toolkit, Shelton has the potential to make some noise as the No. 12 seed. His first-round match against Reilly Opelka will be must-see TV for fans of big-serving Americans, and it wouldn't be too surprising to see Shelton emerge as the quarterfinalist out of Dimitrov's section, earning a date with Zverev or Korda.
Fade
Taylor Fritz (+3000) - Fritz got arguably the toughest early draw out of the top 16 seeds. He missed out on a bye by six spots and will instead face surging American compatriot Brandon Nakashima, who just beat Tommy Paul in Canada. He's also on a second-round collision course with Arthur Fils, who has already tasted the top 20 at age 20 and likely will be seeded at these events in the not-so-distant future. After that is a possible quarterfinal match with the red-hot Rublev, then a semifinal with Sinner and final against Alcaraz. Fritz has a pedestrian 7-6 record at this event in his career, and he's unlikely to improve that mark significantly in 2024.
Cincinnati Open Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Iga Swiatek (+260) - It will be interesting to see how Swiatek reacts to the disappointment of settling for a bronze medal on her favorite clay courts at the Olympics. The world No. 1 isn't quite as dominant on hard courts, though she still has the best overall results on this surface, with a 24-3 hard-court record in 2024. The fast hard courts in Cincinnati are far from her favorite, though, and Swiatek is just 5-5 at this event in her career. Big hitters Marta Kostyuk and Linda Noskova are both capable of testing the top seed in the Round of 16, with No. 5 seed Jasmine Paolini on Swiatek's path in the quarterfinals and a possible semifinal showdown with Aryna Sabalenka or Jelena Ostapenko. At most non-grass tournaments, Swiatek would be a steal at +260 odds, but these odds feel about right with the numerous big hitters in her draw in these fast conditions.
In the Mix
Aryna Sabalenka (+350) - Sabalenka is still working her way back to top form in her return from a shoulder injury, with a 4-2 record since returning to action. The No. 3 seed will face a challenge in the Round of 16 in the form of either Victoria zarenka, Elina Svitolina or Amanda Anisimova, who just upset Sabalenka in Toronto. Ostapenko's her chalk quarterfinal opponent before a potential semifinal clash with Swiatek. If Sabalenka's back to vintage form, that would be her match to lose in these conditions, despite Swiatek's overall 8-3 edge in their head-to-head.
Coco Gauff (+600) - Gauff is the defending champion here, and last year's Cincinnati Open is also where she got her lone win over Swiatek in 12 tries, which speaks both to how well Gauff was playing here last year and how unfavorable the court conditions are to Swiatek's game. Gauff looks far less sharp heading into Cincy this year, with a 9-6 record in her last 15 hard-court matches. The No. 2 seed has a decent draw, though, with Anna Klainskaya and Paula Badosa serving as her two biggest potential obstacles prior to a possible quarterfinal matchup with the Olympic gold medalist Zheng. Rybakina or doubles partner Jessica Pegula would be Gauff's chalk semifinal opponents.
Elena Rybakina (+650) - Rybakina has been sidelined by an illness since Wimbledon but will return as the No. 4 seed in Cincinnati. Her big serve should be effective in these conditions, and while it's fair to wonder what her timing will be like following the layoff, skipping the Olympics on clay could actually be a boon in that regard. She could face one of Donna Vekic or Diana Shnaider in what would be possibly the must-see match of the Round of 16, with Pegula and Gauff possibly on her path in the next two matches before a final against Swiatek or Sabalenka. Rybakina has the game to navigate this tough draw when she's at her best, as she's 40-8 with three titles in 2024.
Jessica Pegula (+1000) - Pegula will be looking to defend her Canadian Open title on Monday night, so the world No. 6 is finally starting to find her game in what has otherwise been a down year. It's tough to avoid a letdown with these two 1000-level events being back-to-back, but at least Pegula will have a bye to get settled before a tough second-round draw against either Karolina Muchova or Dayana Yastremska, both of whom have been to a Grand Slam semifinal in the past year -- an accomplishment Pegula doesn't have in her career. Daria Kasatkina would be her chalk opponent in the Round of 16.
Qinwen Zheng (+1400) - Zheng has the longest odds of this group but has also been in the best form, as she's riding an 11-match winning streak. The question for the No. 7 seed will be how quickly she adapts to fast hard courts, as her recent winning streak came on clay. Zheng also made the final of the Australian Open this year, so her game certainly works on this surface. Her early draw lacks big names, which could give Zheng a chance to settle in before a possible quarterfinal showdown with Gauff. I'm buying Zheng's chances at these odds, as the 21-year-old Olympic gold medalist will be brimming with confidence heading into this event.
Sleepers
Diana Shnaider (+3000) - Shnaider is coming off a semifinal result at the Canadian Open that included wins over Gauff and Liudmila Saomsonova. The big-hitting 20-year-old is 17-3 with two titles across her last five events, and she's showing no signs of slowing down. The buy-low window won't be open much longer, though Shnaider will face an early road block with a possible matchup against No. 16 seed Donna Vekic in the second round. Shnaider has the game to take out both Vekic and Rybakina, who will both be trying to transition back to hard-court tennis.
Donna Vekic (+5000) - Speaking of Vekic, she's an absolute steal at +5000 despite having Shnaider on her path early. Vekic's last two tournaments were a final at Wimbledon and silver medal in Paris, so she's been the most locked-in player on the WTA Tour besides Zheng recently. Prior to those two strong results on grass and clay, Vekic's two most memorable runs were quarterfinals at the 2023 Australian Open and 2019 U.S Open, so she's a proven performer on all surfaces. If the highly competitive Croatian can stay healthy, she looks ready to spend significant time in the top 15 soon.
Amanda Anisimova (+5000) - Anisimova might just be the most talented American woman of her generation, so it's sad that she hasn't been able to put together extensive stretches of her best tennis due to extenuating circumstances. There's still plenty of time to rewrite her narrative considering Anisimova doesn't turn 23 until later this month, and Anisimova showed up in top form in Toronto, losing just one set combined to Kasatkina, Anna Kalinskaya, Sabalenka and Navarro en route to the final, where she will face Pegula on Monday night. The quick turnaround coupled with a brutal draw that includes a first-round match against Victoria Azarenka will make it tough for Anisimova to rekindle the Canadian Open magic in Cincinnati, but Anisimova has the game to beat anybody when she's on.
Fade
Emma Navarro (+2500) - Navarro's having an excellent season and just made her first career WTA 1000 semifinal in Canada, but the No. 11 seed was saddled with a brutal first-round draw here against French Open semifinalist Mirra Andreeva. Navarro's chalk Round of 16 opponent is Paolini, who is a secondary favorite to win this tournament at +2000 odds after reaching the final of both the French Open and Wimbledon. If Navarro gets through this brutal section of the draw to reach the quarterfinals, she could potentially face Swiatek, Sabalenka and Gauff/Rybakina back-to-back-to-back from there.
Sasha's Picks to Win the Cincinnati Open
With Alcaraz needing to reacclimate to hard courts, I'm picking Sinner and Medvedev to bounce back from their respective disappointments in Canada and meet in the final here. The top-ranked Italian's big game fits the conditions here well, so Jannik Sinner is my pick to win Cincinnati and claim the third hard-court ATP 1000 title of his career.
The women's draw is wide open, even with numerous contenders back in for Cincinnati after sitting out Toronto. I'm picking Aryna Sabalenka over Qinwen Zheng here in what would be a rematch of the Australian Open final on the women's side just like Sinner-Medvedev would be for the men. These players have already proven themselves on quick hard courts in 2024, Zheng is playing the best tennis of her career right now and I'm banking on Sabalenka shaking off the rust in her third tournament back from injury.
