This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Second-round tennis play at the 2024 Olympics begins Monday in Paris. Two of the greatest players of all time are set to square off for what may be their final official match, while Italian fans could have something to cheer about Monday despite the absence of world No. 1 Jannik Sinner at this tournament.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at the Olympics are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Olympic Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Rafael Nadal (+475) vs. Novak Djokovic
Age has caught up to the 38-year-old Nadal much more so than the 37-year-old Djokovic due to the Spaniard's far lengthier injury history, but considering it's far from guaranteed that Nadal will even continue his career after this tournament, he'll have no qualms about leaving it all on the line in what will likely be the final meeting between arguably the two greatest players of all time. If Nadal finds a way to pull off this upset, it would level their career head-to-head at 30-all, and if there's any venue at which Nadal can overcome the odds to beat Djokovic, it's this one. A whopping 14 of Nadal's 22 career Grand Slam titles have come at the French Open, while Djokovic has won the clay court major "only" three times among his record 24 Grand Slam titles. Djokovic has lost a step himself in 2024, as his runner-up finish at Wimbledon marked the first final he has played in all year.
Yue Yuan (+425) vs. Maria Sakkari
Sakkari has been involved in more than her fair share of upset losses in the last few years, failing to surpass the third round of a Grand Slam since the start of 2023 and crashing out in the first round four times over that span. Given that history, she can't be considered a safe pick against anybody in a big tournament, especially since the eighth-ranked Greek player is just 3-5 in her last eight matches. Yuan struggled during the clay-court swing this season but won her first WTA title earlier this year and has climbed to 40th in the rankings after reaching the quarterfinals of the WTA 1000 in Miami, where she defeated a pair of top-12 players.
Honorable Mention
Xinyu Wang (+190) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Olympic Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Matteo Arnaldi (-245) vs. Dominik Koepfer
Arnaldi had to produce a much higher level of tennis to win his first-round match, as the 40th-ranked Italian knocked off surging Hamburg champion Arthur Fils in straight sets in the first round, while the 63rd-ranked Koepfer was pushed to a third-set tiebreak by Milos Raonic, who was playing his first clay-court match in nearly four years. Arnaldi has been far better on clay all year, with a 9-6 record on the dirt compared to Koepfer's 5-8 mark.
Jasmine Paolini (-320) vs. Magda Linette
Paolini has been one of the toughest outs on the WTA Tour over the last few months, reaching the final of both the French Open and Wimbledon. The 5-foot-4 Italian's game is well suited for clay, as she retrieves the ball out of the corners exceptionally well and also has the ability to rob her opponent of time by consistently stepping into groundstrokes when given the opportunity. The 41st-ranked Linette is far less consistent than Paolini and has had a rough year, going just 17-18 overall. Linette has surged recently with a clay-court title in Prague followed by an impressive first-round win over Mirra Andreeva, but Paolini has simply been on a different level in 2024.
Honorable Mention
Beatriz Haddad Maia (-265) vs. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova
Olympic Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Ugo Humbert (+130) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Humbert has a 22-spot edge in the rankings, and the 15th-ranked Frenchman will also have the crowd in his corner. He has performed much better on faster surfaces throughout his career, but Humbert's a nice value against Cerundolo, who has a sub-.500 overall record in 2024 at 19-20. Humbert has a 6-2 edge in career titles, and while Cerundolo has the only title on clay between these two (Bastad in 2022), Humbert's superior form in 2024 coupled with his more impressive overall player profile make him the superior value play in what will be the first head-to-head encounter between these players.
Bianca Andreescu (-120) vs. Donna Vekic
Andreescu's variety could prove to be the difference in this match, as Vekic doesn't have a Plan B to go to when her power game isn't working while Andreescu is one of the best problem solvers on the WTA Tour and excels at in-match adjustments. Vekic's 150-spot edge in the rankings is deceiving, as Andreescu would be ranked far higher than 171st if injuries hadn't sidelined her between last August and this year's French Open. Andreescu making the third round at Roland Garros and losing to eventual finalist Paolini without any matches under her belt coming in is a testament to the 2019 U.S. Open champion's ability, while Vekic prefers faster surfaces and is just 4-4 on clay in 2024.
Honorable Mention
Angelique Kerber (-125) vs. Jaqueline Cristian
