This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Tennis at the 2024 Olympics in Paris continues Wednesday. The women are one round ahead of the men, with quarterfinals on the docket in the women's draw and Round of 16 play on the men's side. American medal hopes are likely to take another hit Wednesday after a poor showing from Team USA on Tuesday. Meanwhile, top men's medal contenders are poised to continue advancing and an accomplished women's player will look to pull off another upset.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at the Olympics are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Olympic Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Angelique Kerber (+280) vs. Qinwen Zheng
Kerber has played inspired tennis in the final tournament of her illustrious career, and the crafty German will look to keep rolling into the medal rounds by upsetting another seeded opponent after knocking off No. 16 seed Leylah Fernandez 6-4, 6-3. Zheng has much more firepower than Fernandez, though Kerber showed in her 7-5, 6-3 first-round win over Naomi Osaka that she can still handle big hitters, too. The seventh-ranked Zheng brings an eight-match winning streak into this quarterfinal, though American Emma Navarro pushed her to the brink in Zheng's 6-7 (7), 7-6 (4), 6-1 escape Tuesday. The only previous meeting between these two went to Kerber on the slow hard courts of Indian Wells in 2022.
Honorable Mention
Corentin Moutet (+350) vs. Tommy Paul
Olympic Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Casper Ruud (-200) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Ruud is a top-five player on clay, with two runner-up finishes and a semifinal in his last three French Open appearances. He also has a 23-6 clay-court record in 2024, two clay-court titles this year and 11 titles on this surface over the past five years. Cerundolo won Umag recently for his second career clay-court title and is 21-12 on the surface in 2024, but the Argentine hasn't reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal in his career. While Cerundolo leads their head-to-head 3-2, the ninth-ranked Ruud has been far better in 2024 and has a 17-spot edge in the rankings as a result.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-475) vs. Sebastian Baez
Tsitsipas is another top-10 seed who does his best work on clay going against a top-30 opponent from Argentina. The 5-foot-7 Baez lacks Cerundolo's firepower off the ground, so Tsitsipas should be able to play the match on his terms and consistently get on the front foot with his forehand while limiting exposure to his vulnerable backhand. Tsitsipas has won both of their previous encounters, and the gap in their results over the last few years is far greater than the current seven-spot difference in these two players' rankings would suggest.
Honorable Mention
Barbora Krejcikova (-380) vs. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova
Olympic Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Lorenzo Musetti (-125) vs. Taylor Fritz
Musetti just beat Fritz in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, and this environment is far friendlier to the Italian's skill set. Musetti has a .611 career winning percentage on clay and has reached the French Open Round of 16 twice in four tries, while Fritz has a .587 clay-court win rate and reached the French Open Round of 16 for the first time this year in his eighth appearance. The slower surface neutralizes the American's big serve, and the Italian's shotmaking off both wings gives him a clear edge when they get into extended rallies. If this match were on a hard court, it would be Fritz's match to lose, but on clay, the 16th-ranked Italian is the clear favorite over the 12th-ranked American. Their only previous clay-court encounter came in Monte Carlo this year, and Musetti won it in straight sets.
Marta Kostyuk (+110) vs. Donna Vekic
There isn't much separating these two big hitters coming off upset wins over top-10 players, so Kostyuk's the better value compared to the slightly favored Vekic. The 19th-ranked Kostyuk is coming off a 4-6, 7-6 (5), 6-4 win over Maria Sakkari, marking the sixth top-10 win of 2024 for the Ukrainian. The 21st-ranked Vekic found her groove during the grass-court swing and capitalized on a favorable draw to reach the semifinals at Wimbledon, but the Croatian came into this tournament with a 3-4 record on clay in 2024, though one of those wins was 7-5, 6-4 over Kostyuk at the French Open. Both players are in good form and have drawn inspiration from representing their respective countries in this tournament, so this match will likely be decided by a razor-thin margin.
