This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Third-round U.S. Open action continues Saturday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City. A player fresh off a historic upset will look to notch another victory as a significant underdog, while Czech fans could have a lot to cheer about Saturday.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Picks: Upset Alert
Botic van de Zandschulp (+320) vs. Jack Draper
Van de Zandschulp pulled off one of the more shocking upsets in Grand Slam history in the second round, sweeping away title favorite Carlos Alcaraz 6-1, 7-5, 6-4. The Dutchman hadn't won consecutive ATP Tour matches all year coming into this tournament, but the confidence boost that comes from notching a victory of that caliber can't be understated, and van de Zandschulp is a talented player, having reached the U.S. Open quarterfinals three years ago and been ranked as high as No. 22. Draper has been in superior form recently and currently carries a career high ranking of No. 25, but van de Zandschulp's certainly worth a dart throw as a substantial underdog after the level he showed in his previous match.
Jakub Mensik (+150) vs. Nuno Borges
Mensik is the far more talented player, especially on hard courts, and the 18-year-old Czech will dictate the terms of this match with the superior power generated by his 6-foot-4 frame. After blowing away No. 19 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets, Mensik came back from a two-set deficit against Tristan Schoolkate, showcasing an impressive mix of determination and fitness. Borges is having a career year, having reached the Round of 16 at the Australian Open and later won his first ATP title on clay, but he's just 12-12 on hard courts this year and 22-25 in his career, while Mensik has a 10-4 hard-court record on the ATP Tour in 2024.
Honorable Mention
Jessika Ponchet (+600) vs. Caroline Wozniacki
U.S. Open Odds: Lock It In
Alex de Minaur (-575) vs. Daniel Evans
De Minaur has enjoyed a breakout season and has a golden opportunity ahead of him after Alcaraz crashed out. After reaching the quarterfinals in two of this year's first three Grand Slams, the 10th-seeded Aussie has a clear path to his first major semifinal, with no higher-ranked players left in his section of the draw. De Minaur has proven that he's recovered from the hip injury that prevented him from playing in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, and he has a sparkling 38-12 record in 2024, while Evans is just 6-17 and has dropped to 184th in the rankings. Evans has a 3-0 head-to-head edge against de Minaur, but the 34-year-old Brit's game has fallen off a cliff in 2024 while de Minaur's playing the best tennis of his career at age 25.
Karolina Muchova (-225) vs. Anastasia Potapova
Muchova has been injured for most of the year, but she's finally returning to a level reminiscent of the form she showed en route to the semifinals here last year. She's coming off a 6-3, 7-6 (5) second-round win over four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka, who in turn upset No. 10 seed Jelena Ostapenko in the first round. Potapova had a nice 2-6, 6-4, 7-5 first-round win over No. 23 seed Leylah Fernandez, but the 38th-ranked Russian has had trouble with consistency throughout matches this year and is just 7-12 in her last 19 clashes with top-55 opponents. Muchova's ranked 52nd but would be much higher had she been healthy all year.
Honorable Mention
Diana Shnaider (-1100) vs. Sara Errani
U.S. Open Predictions: Value Bets
Tomas Machac (-185) vs. David Goffin
Machac's just the better player at this stage of their respective careers. The 39th-ranked Czech's 22-15 record in 2024 includes victories over Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev, and he hasn't dropped a set en route to the third round, having just knocked off 16th-seeded American Sebastian Korda in straight sets. Goffin spent a decent chunk of his career in or near the top 10, but the 33-year-old Belgian has dropped to 78th and is just 11-13 in 2024. He took advantage of a relatively easy draw against two struggling players in Alejandro Tabilo and Adrian Mannarino, but this will likely be the end of the road for Goffin, who rarely cranks his first serve above the low triple digits these days.
Jasmine Paolini (-150) vs. Yulia Putintseva
Both of these players are undersized late bloomers enjoying career years, but there's a significant disparity in how much success these career-best seasons have entailed. The 28-year-old Paolini won a 1000-level event on hard courts and reached two Grand Slam finals to climb to her current spot of fifth in the WTA rankings, while the 29-year-old Putintseva has been reaching the Round of 16 and occasional quarterfinals in big tournaments and is currently five spots back of her career-best No. 27 ranking. Paolini's exceptional court coverage will make it difficult for Putintseva to maximize the damage from her frequent drop shots and variety, and the Italian is better equipped to take control of baseline rallies, as her groundstrokes have more bite between these two 5-foot-4 opponents. Putintseva has upset Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff in the last couple months, so she won't be intimidated against a top-five player, but Paolini's the clear favorite in this match.
Honorable Mention
Matteo Arnaldi (+100) vs. Jordan Thompson
