This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
It's a tricky week for fantasy football and any type of pick 'em or props selections with so many teams playing in matchups that aren't meaningful. We'll stick with some of our traditional analysis (pass rate over expectation, defensive matchup, pace of play, etc), it's also important to take into account the different team's motivations. With that in mind, the focus of our selections this week will center around teams that we know will have something to play for. They are: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Denver, Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Detroit and Minnesota.
Higher
Pat Freiermuth – higher than 32.5 receiving yards
Freiermuth has had a valuable role in the Pittsburgh offense due to his work near the goal line, but he's had more inconsistent yardage production. Saturday night sets up well for him, however, as the Bengals have allowed the second-most targets to opposing tight ends this season and the third-most total yards. We saw that effect in these team's first matchup of the season, when Freiermuth commanded his second-most targets of the season (seven) and highest yardage total of the season (68). Pat Freiermuth should get some yardage against the Bengals, who have allowed the second-most targets to opposing tight ends this season.
Malik Nabers – higher than 69.5 receiving yards
The Giants' offense is a disaster, so buying in any player is a difficult ask. Things are different in Week 18 with the Eagles set to rest key playmakers at every level of their defense and with very little motivation to win the game. Thus, looking at the season-long defensive numbers, which are very strong, is largely worthless in this situation. Nabers should be able to take advantage. He's the unquestioned focal point of the New York offense, drawing double-digit targets in four of his last six games. Given the watered-down matchup, that should be plenty of opportunity to top this projection.
Jaleel McLaughlin – higher than 34.5 rushing yards
Marvin Mims – higher than 29.5 receiving yards
The Broncos offense has started to evolve in recent weeks. In his last two full games, McLaughlin has earned 14 and 10 carries and has led the team in carries. He certainly won't operate as a workhorse back, but he doesn't need to with a projection this low. We can also turn to the matchup again. Denver will take a Chiefs team with nothing to play for and that is resting four of its seven starters in the front seven.
Mims saw three or fewer targets every week from 1 to 9. Since, he's seen at least four targets in all but one game while topping this projection in five of those seven games. The Broncos likely won't have to throw much to win this game but they will be motivated to lock in their playoff spot.
Bucky Irving – higher than 84.5 rushing yards
The Buccaneers are an interesting offense. They've been a pass-heavy team for significant portions of the season, but not in recent weeks. The NFC South is theirs with a victory, and they should be able to use a conservative approach to beat the Saints. Bucky Irving will be the centerpiece of that. He has a minimum of 15 attempts in each of his last four full games, and he's averaged 5.7 yards per carry in that span. New Orleans is also a very favorable matchup, as they've allowed the third-most yards per attempt (4.84) on the season. That all comes together to create a strong chance for a big performance from Irving.
Lower
Brock Bowers- lower than 76.5 receiving yards or 13.85 fantasy points
This one is a bit tricky, because we don't what the Chargers will be playing for on Sunday afternoon. If the Steelers win Saturday night, the Chargers will be the sixth seed in the AFC with no chance of moving up or down based on the outcome of their matchup against the Raiders. If Los Angeles has something to play for, their defensive focus is likely to be on Bowers and they've excelled at limiting opposing tight ends throughout the season by allowing only 6.23 yards per target (third-fewest in the league) and just one touchdown.
Jordan Love – lower than 15.75 fantasy points
Love has done a solid job leading the Packers offense this season by limiting sacks and distributing the ball well, but his game hasn't been particularly fantasy friendly. He has multiple passing touchdowns in only three of seven games since Green Bay's bye while also failing to reach 200 passing yards three times in that span. The matchup against the Bears also isn't in his favor. Opposing quarterbacks have attempted the fifth-fewest passes in the league against the Bears this season while allowing only 17 touchdowns (tied for fewest in the league). Instead, they've been a run funnel, and we know the Packers are more than happy to have Josh Jacobs serve as the engine to their offense.
