Henry is one of a kind with no true case study for a player bearing his traits, making it especially difficult to make the right call on the question of physical decline -- something that's already difficult enough to determine for running backs. The decline always happens, but in Henry's case there's reason to suspect he can remain productive into his early 30s. As much as his career workload of 2,030 carries (2,186 including playoffs) is a concerning figure, it's defenders who tend to get the worst of the collisions that involve him, and there might be a different exchange rate of usage to decline for someone with his combination of size (6-3, 247) and speed. That combination could prove a dangerous fit in a Ravens offense that already spreads defenses thin with the rushing threat posed by Lamar Jackson. Good as Henry might be as a rusher for the Baltimore offense, he'll have a hard time matching his workloads from Tennessee and isn't likely to catch many passes (Justice Hill paced Baltimore running backs with 28 receptions in 16 games last year). The 30 year old may be even more reliant on touchdowns than in past seasons, though he at least figures to spend plenty of time in the red zone now that he's with a much better team.

Barkley's career has generally been a difficult one due to injuries and the struggles of the Giants offenses, but his rare talent usually shines through and provides fantasy investors with solid production despite the grueling nature of his workloads. The hope now is that by going from the Giants to the Eagles there might be a chance for Barkley to finally find some open field as a ballcarrier, not to mention more scoring opportunities. The Eagles offense made Miles Sanders one of the league's most productive runners just two years ago, so putting Barkley in the same scheme could result in one of the league's best outputs at running back. The retirement of center Jason Kelce is a bummer, but it's something the Eagles should be able to manage, as the offensive line left behind is still much better than what Barkley ever had with the Giants. D'Andre Swift claimed 229 carries and 49 targets in 16 games last year, so those numbers probably represent Barkley's floor for usage if he stays relatively healthy in his age-27 season.

Hall's career has largely been defined by starts and stops due to his 2022 ACL tear and the constant shenanigans of the Jets offense. Even so, the verdict is clear: Hall is a star. His combination of speed, power, vision and receiving ability make him capable of finishing as the top fantasy running back multiple times before his career concludes. When entertaining upside scenarios, it's difficult to rule anything out. He's averaged 4.8 YPC to this point in his career and appears capable of leading the league in rushing, yet his 76 receptions from 2023 imply he can also lead NFL running backs in receiving production. Perhaps both in the same season is on the table? Hall should be in much better circumstances this year, assuming 40-year-old QB Aaron Rodgers isn't totally cooked after suffering an Achilles' tear last season. The Jets improved the rest of their offense this offseason, signing LT Tyron Smith and WR Mike Williams, trading for RT Morgan Moses and then drafting OT Ola Fashanu (first round) and WR Malachi Corley (third round). They've now got both depth and high-end talent along the offensive line, a unit that was hard-hit by injuries last year and ultimately had 10 players top 200 snaps. With a better team around him and another year removed from the ACL tear, Hall may be headed for a truly special season.

McCaffrey was the consensus RB1 and first fantasy pick from 2019 to 2021, but injuries in 2020 and 2021 left his ranking up for review after two dud years. That didn't last long. Not only has McCaffrey's health cooperated the last two years, he now has the privilege of playing in a top-three offense. Even with sky-high usage the last two years (516 carries, 152 receptions), McCaffrey's efficiency was at/near a league-leading level (5.0 yards per carry, 6.8 yards per target). Volume is normally a slight downward pressure on efficiency -- the more a defense expects you, the better they tend to defend you -- but McCaffrey has been unstoppable in San Francisco no matter how aggressively opponents try to slow him. While his previous injury troubles raise the understandable fear of similar problems occurring in the future, McCaffrey's overall track record of availability (79 percent of possible games) is about normal for a heavily used RB. Rather than fretting over McCaffrey's past injuries, the more useful frame would be to consider that injuries are likely the only way for any other running back to catch him in the fantasy rankings. That's a statement that would apply to very few running backs throughout history, as a talent like McCaffrey in a scheme like San Francisco's yields an almost perfect projection.

Tyler Allgeier is a good running back, but it wasn't reasonable for Robinson to only see 214 carries to Allgeier's 186 carries last season. Atlanta team ownership presumably agreed, because previous head coach Arthur Smith was fired and the new coach Raheem Morris likely has an understanding that Robinson's inconsistent 2023 usage was a big reason Smith was fired. If Robinson's rushing workload increases then it could hold explosive results for his fantasy value, especially with Kirk Cousins arriving at quarterback. Robinson is already one of the league's better pass catchers at running back (86 targets last year) yet his efficiency numbers were badly dragged down by Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. Robinson will likely improve on the 67.4 percent catch rate and 5.8 yards per target figure he had last year, and if that occurs at the same time as a rushing production surge then Robinson would have a clear path to finish the 2024 season not just as a fantasy RB1 in general, but maybe even the top fantasy back in the entire NFL.